The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt

We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by concessional financing and/or offset by debt relief. Among the larger EMs, the debt implications are not particularly worrying in Central Europe and East Asia, but they may prompt a broader shift towards financial repression to keep borrowing costs low in countries like Brazil, South Africa, Mexico and India.