The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could trigger balance sheet problems that make the downturn much worse and the recovery slower. Sovereign default risks are generally confined to smaller commodity producers. But private sector debt is a bigger problem in some larger EMs, including parts of Latin America, Dubai and Turkey.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.