Emerging Europe Economics Update Car manufacturing weighing on Central European exports The Central European economies have enjoyed a period of strong economic growth, but exports have been a relative (and perhaps surprising) weak spot. This appears to reflect a general weakening of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Cycle to turn in 2018 Most economies in Emerging Europe had a very strong end to 2017, but we expect regional growth to soften in the coming quarters. The economic cycle in Central Europe is now looking mature and growth... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s activity data for Russia suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole may have slowed to a disappointing 1.0% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. But conditions improved right at the end of last year... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, Trump and trade: the path ahead The trade protection measures that have so far been announced by the Trump administration are fairly small in scope and will not have much of a bearing on the outlook for EM exports. However, we’ve... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong end to 2017 (for most) Growth in Emerging Europe as a whole slowed in Q4, having hit a six-year high in Q3. But most of that slowdown came in the region’s largest economy, Russia, whose recovery stuttered. Weakness there... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update As good as it gets for EM currencies EM currencies have strengthened at the start of 2018 and our synthetic EM exchange rate index has jumped to an 18-month high, but we don’t expect the rally to continue. Indeed, we think most EM... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets off to a flyer, despite softer economic data EM financial markets have made a flying start to 2018, with most equity markets up by 4-6% since the start of the year and most currencies up by 2-3% against the US dollar. However, the incoming... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The Polish activity figures for December were weaker than November’s data, but most of that can be explained by working-day effects. Our Tracker suggests that the economy grew by a strong 4.8% y/y or... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies: it’s the economy, stupid! The news flow in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the past few weeks has been dominated by political troubles, but currencies have performed surprisingly well. One reason for this is likely to be... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018 Early data for December suggest that EM export growth finished 2017 on a slightly softer footing and support our view that trade growth will slow this year. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary’s MPC keep the bond market rally going? Hungary’s central bank has started two new policies this week aimed at bringing down bond yields, including the first QE programme in an emerging market. But there are reasons to think that the impact... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick thoughts on the recent jump in oil prices The economic gains from the recent rise in oil prices are concentrated among a handful of EMs (mainly in the Gulf) but the losses are spread more widely. That being said, if oil holds onto its recent... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Flying start to 2018 for EM equities not likely to last Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities has hit the ground running again in 2018, we think that the rally will fizzle out before long. 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up a bit in December, but remained slow over the year as a whole. Portfolio flows into EMs hit a record high last year, and look strong going into... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM cycle to turn in 2018 Several major EMs, notably Brazil and Russia, are likely to experience a pick-up in growth this year. But in others, including China, the cycle is now peaking. The net result is that, in contrast to... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
