Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press conference highlighted that a hawkish faction exists on the Council. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Vulnerabilities linger in a handful of EMs Our indicators suggest that, while financial risks in EMs have diminished over the past couple of years, pockets of vulnerability exist in several countries including Turkey, Hong Kong and Singapore. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be larger than most expect The Romanian MPC’s hawkish post-meeting press statement, which followed the decision to hike the policy interest rate earlier today, supports our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that the pace of GDP growth remained extremely strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe in Q4, at around 5.0-5.5% y/y. 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The decline in Turkish inflation in December, to 11.9% y/y, from 13.0% y/y in November, will take some pressure off the central bank to follow up last month’s interest rate hike with further... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing sectors across most of the region ended 2017 on a strong note. Indeed, the surveys for Central Europe and Turkey are consistent with... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier economies to strengthen in 2018 Frontier markets have enjoyed a recovery in 2017, with aggregate GDP growth set to reach close to 3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.3% in 2016. Frontiers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next? The decision by the European Commission to trigger an Article 7 procedure against Poland is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy in the short-term. Poland’s structural fund inflows can’t be... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC still dovish, but tide may be slowly turning The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike an extremely dovish tone but, reading between the lines, it does seem that the rhetoric is gradually starting to shift... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rise in 2018 EM inflation was steady between October and November, but the big picture is that it is up from the multi-year trough reached in the summer and will continue to rise over the course of 2018. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The disappointing batch of Russian activity data for November suggests that GDP growth may be on course to slow to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q4. And the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for 2018, of... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s mini-banking crisis rumbles on The recovery in the Russian economy this year has been stronger than most expected, but ongoing problems among small and mid-tier banks have slipped under the radar. This was underlined last week by... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack A strong 2017 – but 2018 will be more challenging Our GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging world is on course to grow by just over 4.5% in 2017 – it’s fastest pace of expansion in six years. The pick-up has been broad-based, with growth in Emerging... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bp today caught the market (and ourselves) by surprise but the scale of the cut, as well as the tone of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2018 to be the last year of yield falls Solid economic growth prospects in most of Europe bode well for occupier demand and prime rents in the next few years. However, better growth is likely to be a double-edged sword for commercial... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Strong year for EM exports, but 2018 set to be softer 2017 was the first year since 2014 in which EM exports recorded positive growth. However, two of the key props to this year’s export recovery are likely to weaken over the coming quarters – meaning... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
