Turkish inflation, Russia’s government, US tariff threat

Comments from Turkey’s central bank governor this week suggest that further interest rate cuts lie in store. This is premised on the view that inflation will fall back, which is likely to prove misplaced, and we think that interest rates will ultimately have to be hiked later this year. Meanwhile, one take-away from the appointment of President Putin’s new cabinet is that more fiscal stimulus is in the pipeline, and we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year. Finally, US President Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on European motor vehicles this week, which would hit Central Europe particularly hard