Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that, after a short period in January in which capital flowed into EMs, the emerging world experienced net capital outflows once more in February. So far, the deterioration in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: early signs that strong demand is leaking into imports Q4 GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) confirmed that last year’s pick-up in regional growth was driven by an improvement in consumer spending and investment. However... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity producers on the mend GDP data for 2017 revealed a widespread improvement in growth in key EM commodity producers last year. While we are relatively downbeat on the medium-term prospects for most of these economies, we... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The slightly stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data for February, of 10.3% y/y, means the MPC is likely to stick to its hawkish tone at Wednesday’s MPC meeting. Inflation should begin to edge... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe fell across the region, but are still consistent with strong industrial activity in Central Europe. And while the sharp drop in the Russian survey... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Appetite for international bond sales remains strong International bond markets have been inundated with debt issuance from frontier markets over the past couple of years and there’s no sign yet that appetite is waning. Since the start of this year... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Gloss comes off the EM recovery Events over the past month suggested that the Emerging Market (EM) recovery might not be as strong and stable as some seem to think. Economic data for the end of last year pointed to slightly softer... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation The outcome of Russia’s presidential election next month is not in doubt, although it’s still unclear what direction economic policy will take during President Putin’s fourth (and probably final) term... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole may strengthen to more than 5.5% y/y in Q1. The Hungarian and Polish... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Further slowdown of EM GDP growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened at the end of last year and early indicators point to further weakness at the start of 2018. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets Long-term bond yields in Hungary have risen further this year than those of the country’s peers, despite the central bank’s efforts to bring them down. It seems that markets are coming around to our... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Firing on all cylinders The data from Emerging Europe at the start of 2018 have painted a bright picture. Our weighted average of the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that net flows to EMs turned positive in January for the first time since April last year, but subsequent market moves suggest that we are likely to have seen a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
