Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey on the brink Turkey seems to have been on the brink of a crisis several times this decade, only for the central bank to do just enough to steady the ship. But there are reasons to think that emergency interest... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM corporate credit spreads appear unsustainably low Aside from a brief drop in July, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have generally been rising in recent months and are well above their January troughs. Nonetheless, corporate credit spreads in... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM tightening cycle to kick on Inflationary pressures now seem to be building in many EMs. As a result, we think that the interest rate hikes seen in a few countries this week and that are likely next week will be followed by... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Perfect storm brewing in Turkey, BMW comes to Hungary The US’s decision to impose sanctions on Turkey this week, as well as another bad inflation reading, has strengthened the case for further interest rate hikes. And there’s a growing risk of severe... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) July’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe made a soft start to Q3. What’s more, the surveys provide evidence that price pressures are building across most of the region. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks becoming more hawkish The rise in inflation in most of Emerging Europe over the past month has caused central banks to adopt a more hawkish tone. Policymakers in Romania and the Czech Republic are likely to hike interest... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth starting to lose momentum Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth was stronger over Q2 as a whole than it was in Q1, but there are early signs that momentum faded towards the end of the quarter. 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but it still suggests that GDP growth across the region held up well at the... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin wavers on pension reform, Turkish sanctions Signs this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin now opposes a planned rise in the retirement age suggest that the one significant policy reform announced in the country in the past three years... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Region fares well in Q2, Turkey to hike rates next week Activity data released in Russia, Turkey and Poland suggest that regional GDP growth remained strong at around 4% y/y in Q2. Among a number of monetary policy decisions due next week, we expect Turkey... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan talks, markets tumble Turkish President Erdogan’s decisions this week to exclude investor-friendly members from his new cabinet and renew his calls for lower interest rates have rattled local financial markets and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EC to punish Poland, Turkish inflation surges The infringement procedure launched this week by the European Commission against Poland – in response to controversial legal reforms and the associated worries about the erosion of judicial... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
