Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth holding up in early Q4, but set to slow The very early evidence suggests that EM GDP growth steadied at the start of Q4, as stronger export growth offset a slowdown in consumption. But activity is likely to weaken over the course of 2019. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for September add to the evidence that the economy is entering a deep recession. Our GDP growth forecasts lie well below the consensus. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Stable for now, but headed for a slowdown EM export growth remained strong in September, and probably picked up in October. But we think that a combination of escalating tariffs, lower commodity prices, and weaker economic growth in developed... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities likely to remain on the ropes Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has recovered a little in the past couple of weeks, it is still below its level a month ago, and we suspect that it will fall much further by the end of... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3) Faster GDP growth in Poland and Hungary reinforces our view that central banks in both countries will begin to tighten monetary policy over the coming quarters. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker suggests that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world picked up to about $100bn in the three months to October, the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European cycle still has further to go Office occupier demand was again strong this quarter, driving vacancy rates lower and rental values higher in a number of markets. The retail and industrial sectors saw only limited rental growth... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in October, to 25.2% y/y, is unlikely to prompt further interest rate hikes from the central bank. Instead, the main risk is that, with pipeline... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs drive uptick in EM manufacturing in Q4 The run of consecutive declines in the EM manufacturing PMI came to an end at the start of this quarter, thanks to an improvement in the surveys across the BRIC economies. Moreover, the breakdown of... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Short-term pain, long-term gain for EM equities? Although the gap between the valuations of equities in emerging and developed markets has widened recently, and is now quite large by historical standards, this is no guarantee that the former will... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The continued weakness of Turkey’s PMI provides further evidence that the economy has fallen into a deep recession. Elsewhere, the drop in the Czech PMI last month suggests that softness in the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
