Europe Economics Focus What inflation rate is the ECB really targeting? Despite its latest policy loosening, the ECB’s behaviour over recent years has been consistent with an inflation objective of closer to 1% than 2%. This has depressed economic growth and increased the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but hikes are on the horizon Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row, citing low global inflation and a strengthening currency. But with inflationary pressures... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but hikes are on the horizon Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row, citing low global inflation and a strengthening currency. But with inflationary pressures... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising office employment points to rental growth in most markets In 2015, office vacancy rates fell in most euro-zone markets. With supply conditions tightening, and office employment picking up at a steady pace, almost every market will see office rents rise this... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB about to launch the chopper? While the distribution of helicopter money in the euro-zone is not a likely near-term measure, the lesson of recent years is that seemingly unimaginable policies can become reality. And it may suit... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new TLTROs boost bank lending? The latest changes to its lending operations mean that the ECB will now pay commercial banks to lend to the wider economy. But we still suspect that they will be unwilling to take the associated risks... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 16) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s strong rise in euro-zone industrial production was probably just a blip. Survey evidence suggests that the sector remains too weak to prevent the region’s economic recovery from slowing this... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The adverse market reaction to the ECB’s bolder-than-expected package of policy measures unveiled on Thursday reflected concerns, partly prompted by comments from President Mario Draghi , that the... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch referendum on Ukraine another threat to the EU While a ‘no’ vote in the upcoming Dutch referendum on the European Union’s Association Agreement with Ukraine might have few direct effects, such an outcome would illustrate the Dutch population’s... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB belatedly delivers, but it can’t work miracles While the ECB today delivered a package of measures which exceeded market expectations, there is no guarantee that it will revive the euro-zone’s flagging economic recovery and eliminate the threat of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK’s trade deficit is all the euro-zone’s fault For all the hopes of a rebalancing towards exports, the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has barely narrowed since the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that a chronic lack of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q4) In Q4, Ireland’s economy recorded another rapid expansion, but we are not too concerned about the economy overheating. Growth is likely to slow this year and price pressures appear to be fairly weak... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in French industrial production supports the message from German data that the sector had a good start to the year. But German exports fell in January, suggesting that softer global... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4) Although Icelandic GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, the big picture is that annual GDP growth accelerated sharply in 2015. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
