Europe Data Response German GDP Q4 2019 (Second Estimate) After flat-lining in Q4 last year, we suspect that the German economy will not grow in the first half of this year either, even if the effects of the coronavirus are contained. 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The small increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February will be a relief for those braced for a big hit from the coronavirus. However, the index is still below its level in December and... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys do little to dispel gloomy outlook The economic surveys this week suggested that the euro-zone economy held up better in the face of the coronavirus than had been feared. But the detail of the PMIs still showed that the virus had taken... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Further slowdown in capital value growth ahead Although euro-zone rental value growth slowed in 2019, further falls in property yields supported capital values. Despite the soft economic backdrop, capital value growth should hold up in coming... 21st February 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in February will have assuaged fears that the region’s economy has been adversely affected by supply-chain disruption as a result of the coronavirus... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s more positive outlook won’t have lasted long The account of the ECB’s January meeting suggests that the ECB was becoming a little more positive on the economic outlook. But weak data and the spread of the coronavirus since then will have surely... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Euro likely to end 2020 even weaker against the dollar While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in January may test the Riksbank’s resolve to keep policy unchanged. With subdued GDP growth likely to weigh on underlying inflation this year, we... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy at risk of falling into recession, again After Italy’s economy shrank at the end of last year, it looks set to continue to struggle in 2020. In fact, there is a clear risk that it falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008. 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on Irish reunification The recent election result in Ireland has made the prospect of reunification slightly less remote. In this Update, we answer four political questions and four economic questions about what it might... 17th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB on hold until later this year The recent economic data have continued to be weak, and ECB policymakers seem more united behind their current “unconventional” policy than they were last year. However, we see no chance of further... 14th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still in love with zero While the Riksbank left policy unchanged this week, we suspect that weak GDP growth and inflation will prompt it to ease policy soon. Next week’s data are likely to show that inflation fell in Sweden... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office rents to hold up despite boost to supply Softer office occupier demand is expected to weigh on German prime office rents this year. But we still think that rents can grow at a decent pace because, even though office supply is expected to... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Coronavirus driving financial market moves The initial financial market reaction in Switzerland and the Nordics to the coronavirus followed the familiar pattern during times of uncertainty: the Swiss franc rose and Swiss bond yields tumbled on... 13th February 2020 · 10 mins read
