Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable are Emerging European property markets to a Grexit? Emerging European financial markets have generally shrugged off the announcement of a Greek referendum. Yet while there are reasons to believe that Emerging Europe is less exposed to Grexit risks than... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank boosts stimulus to weaken krona Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its monetary policy stimulus to protect the nascent uptrend in inflation and fight the recent strengthening of the krona. But with the upward pressure on the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Reforms will help Italian banks crawl back to health Recent reforms will help Italy’s fragile banking system. But a legacy of bad debts and the earlier tightening of lending standards will weigh on the country’s recovery for a while yet. 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank boosts stimulus to weaken krona Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its monetary policy stimulus to protect the nascent uptrend in inflation and fight the recent strengthening of the krona. But with the upward pressure on the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Greece limited for now Greece’s crisis escalated further in June, culminating in a default to the IMF, the imposition of capital controls and the expiry of the second bailout programme. In response, Greek 10 year government... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC takes further rate cuts off the table The National Bank of Romania pinned its decision to keep interest rates on hold earlier today (rather thancut them further) on concerns about contagion from the Greek crisis. And judging by the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tsipras blinks, but Grexit risks are still high The expiry of Greece’s second bailout programme and its “default” to the IMF have raised the crisis to a new level. With latest polls suggesting that a majority of voters will vote to reject the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update For how long will low oil prices boost spending growth? The declines in oil prices since last summer might add as much as 1 percentage point to euro-zone consumer spending growth this year. However, unless oil prices fall further, which we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Even a Yes vote might not prevent a Grexit A Yes vote in Sunday’s Greek referendum, if it goes ahead, will not guarantee the country’s futureinside the euro-zone. Not only is it unclear just what deal such an outcome would lead to, but... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How might property markets respond if and when Grexit occurs? Today's PMI readings were slightly weaker than expected but do not change the general picture, which is that growth is recovering on the back of both an improvement in external demand and a policy... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The renewed decline in euro-zone HICP inflation in June highlighted that the ECB still has a lot of work to do to hit its inflation target in the medium term. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s sharp fall in German HICP inflation confirmed that underlying price pressures have remained very subdued even in the euro-zone’s strongest economy. 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jun) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer Survey for Junesuggested that the euro-zone recovery may have gained some pace in Q2. But thesurvey was carried out before last weekend’s... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
