Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4 15) Although Icelandic GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, the big picture is that annual GDP growth accelerated sharply in 2015. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Not much relief in sight for Greece The resumption of the first formal review of Greece’s third bailout has raised hopes that the country’s creditors may soon grant it some form of debt relief. But it won’t be big enough to make Greece... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese yields to rise further on threat of QE exclusion The latest rise in Portuguese bond yields reflects fears that its debt will soon be classified as junk by all four major ratings agencies, leading the country to be excluded from the ECB’s asset... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the consumer recovery, which boosted growth last year, is losing steam. With recent evidence that growth is slowing and inflation expectations... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s surprisingly strong gain in German industrial production is unlikely to signal the start of a lasting recovery and hence should not discourage the ECB from further bold policy loosening on... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value growth to slow Capital value growth is likely to have peaked in 2015, but further falls in yields and steady rental value growth will keep capital values rising in 2016 and 2017. Yet, there will be country and city... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook The Euro-zone Commercial Property Analyst Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for rental growth in some markets, and also pushed down our near term forecasts for property yields. Yet in most markets, lower yields... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How long will deflation last this time? The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch The ECB can’t afford to disappoint again The ECB has signalled a further loosening of monetary policy at its forthcoming meeting on 10 th March. And while December’s under-deliverance highlights the risk of another disappointment, the... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) January’s euro-zone retail sales data provided some relief that the consumer sector did not lose as much steam as had been feared around the turn of the year. But the outlook for the sector is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation is back... again Recent evidence of a slowdown in the euro-zone’s economic recovery has been accompanied by a drop in consumer price inflation back below zero in February. The fall was partly down to food and energy... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Shortage of assets won’t prevent ECB QE expansion The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment and strength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 15) Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment ands trength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies improved their budgetary positions at the start of 2016. Further consolidation is likely this year but political pressures may... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And survey evidence suggests that the labour market recovery is starting to slow. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
