Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France's economic recovery will continue to disappoint The French economy’s decent start to 2015 is unlikely to have been sustained in Q2. Looking further ahead, we think that the recovery will struggle to gain significant pace over the next few years. In... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does Plan B for Greece look like? EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s claim that Greece’s creditors now have a “detailed Grexit scenario” may be a bluff to strengthen their bargaining position. But it is not hard to imagine what the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the euro-zone’s next weakest link? Although the ECB’s OMT programme may allow Portugal to weather a Grexit, the country still faces serious challenges that might jeopardise the country’s long-term position within the currency union. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cost pressures set to keep German logistics rental value growth subdued German logistics occupier demand should increase over the coming quarters. Yet with the sector already facing pressure from rising wages, occupiers are set to take up space further away from prime... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Time to let Greece go? While Greece and its creditors look set to make one last attempt to reach an agreement, it might very soon be time to accept the inevitable and refocus efforts on how best to manage the country’s exit... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s German industrial production figures supported other evidence suggesting that the euro-zone’s main growth engine is unlikely to have picked up speed in Q2. 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (lower) forecasts for precious metals prices The prices of precious metals have not responded as we had anticipated to the growing risks of a Greek exit (“Grexit”) from the euro. We are therefore revising our end-year forecasts for gold, silver... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update All signs point south for oil prices The combination of a Greek “no” vote, signs of rising US oil production, positive signals of a nuclear deal between Iran and the West as well as slowing Chinese demand for imported oil means that we... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Oxi vote pushes Grexit probability further above 50% While yesterday’s resounding Oxi (No) vote in the Greek referendum does not guarantee a Greek exit from the euro-zone, it has surely raised the probability of such an event further above 50%. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Nai or Oxi? Sunday’s Greek referendum result looks likely to be very close. But regardless of whether the outcome is Nai or Oxi, unless any resulting deal includes a substantial form of debt relief, the crisis... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (Jun.) Although euro-zone retail sales only rose slightly in May, the outlook for consumer spending is bright. And the rise in June’s composite PMI suggested that the wider recovery was sustained in Q2... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
