Europe Commercial Property Update Will falling rents push up prime Oslo office yields? Compounded by a negative rental growth outlook, Oslo offices appear overvalued. However, with foreign investors likely to be lured by the historically weak kroner and domestic investors keen on prime... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & GDP Breakdown (Q4) February’s sharper-than-expected decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) added to the evidence that growth there is slowing and further justified additional ECB policy support. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s sharp decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI supported other evidence that the region’s recovery has slowed in Q1 and added to pressure on the ECB to provide further decisive policy support... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU deal soon should pave way for a Brexit referendum in June The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Strongest year for capital values since 2006 Office rental values recorded their strongest quarterly gain since 2011 in Q4. Yet at the all-property level, yield compression, rather than rental growth, proved to be the main driver of capital... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi’s criteria for further easing already met Last week, January’s ECB minutes were published, revealing that all members of the Governing Council thought that it was necessary to reconsider the monetary stance. Separately, President Draghi set... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Slowing economic growth weighing on rental growth The fourth quarter brought clearer signs of an economic slowdown in non-euro-zone Western Europe. And this economic weakness may help to explain the limited extent of rental value growth in Q4 across... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan. 16) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Reaction to Riksbank’s rate cut won’t deter ECB The adverse reaction to the decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to lower its policy rate further below zero illustrates investors’ concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on banks’... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Reaction to Riksbank’s rate cut won’t deter ECB The adverse reaction to the decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to lower its policy rate further below zero illustrates investors’ concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on banks’... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4) In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4 15) In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect the rest of the EU? We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) Despite the decline in the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in December, net exports probably increased in Q4 as a whole, raising GDP. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
