Europe Economics Update Are ECB corporate bond purchases a game-changer? The prospect of ECB corporate bond purchases is already having a positive effect on firms’ financing costs. But we don’t think that this will be enough to generate a meaningful recovery in investment... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Refugee crisis is another threat to Greek bailout Greece and its creditors have reached some compromises that might allow the first bailout review to be concluded next month and negotiations over debt relief to begin. But the growing financial and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would a Brexit mean for Scotland? This Thursday marks the date that the Scottish government had pencilled in for “independence day” if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014’s independence referendum. So it seems a particularly... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs, German Ifo & ZEW (Mar.) The euro-zone PMI and German Ifo and ZEW surveys for March suggest that the slowdown in activity seen at the start of the year has eased, but the surveys still point to only modest growth in Q1 as a... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch retail rental growth rates upgraded Steady improvement in the Dutch consumer sector in the next few years will support expansionary retailer demand and drive rental growth rates above those we had previously forecast. We now expect... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s trade surplus set to shrink We do not think that the recent strengthening of the euro is the result of a change of tactics from the ECB, away from trying to manage the exchange rate towards attempting to boost domestic demand... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What options does Sweden’s Riksbank have left? The growing unease over the potential impact of negative interest rates suggests that Sweden’s Riksbank will think twice about cutting the repo rate further below zero. It can draw on other policy... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus German office rental growth is set to pick up strongly Office rental values in Berlin, Hamburg and Munich now stand, on average, 7% above their prior 2008 peaks, and at their highest levels in 15 years. Even so, the positive economic outlook, low... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) & Final CPI (Feb.) January’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that export growth slowed again at the start of 2016, suggesting that the previous small boost from the weaker euro has faded. We expect the region’s trade... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold, but battle against deflation is not won The lack of upward pressure on the franc following the last ECB meeting has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to leave policy on hold for now. But deflation dangers are particularly severe in... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates, but concerns about debt growing We think that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank will be followed by another 25bp reduction in June. But concerns about household debt will prevent further loosening beyond that. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What options does Sweden’s Riksbank have left? The growing unease over the potential impact of negative interest rates suggests that Sweden’s Riksbank will think twice about cutting the repo rate further below zero. It can draw on other policy... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates, but concerns about debt growing We think that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank will be followed by another 25bp reduction in June. But concerns about household debt will prevent further loosening beyond that. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but battle against deflation is not won The lack of upward pressure on the franc following the last ECB meeting has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to leave policy on hold for now. But deflation dangers are particularly severe in... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can Helsinki office rents rise above the weak economic outlook? Finland’s poor economic outlook will not prevent prime office rents from growing further in the next few years. Indeed, we have bumped up our rental growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 to 3% and 2.5%... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What inflation rate is the ECB really targeting? Despite its latest policy loosening, the ECB’s behaviour over recent years has been consistent with an inflation objective of closer to 1% than 2%. This has depressed economic growth and increased the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
