Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) The sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at a decent pace at the start of Q3. But we suspect that activity will remain below... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (July) The small fall in euro-zone consumer confidence in July is consistent with the message from high frequency data that the recovery in spending may already be slowing. 23rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Landlords better positioned this time Although banks expect to tighten lending standards, we think that the underlying situation is much better than pre-GFC and that government schemes will continue to provide support, which should limit... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Nordics set for shallowest recessions in Europe The Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis comparatively well, and if our above-consensus forecasts for GDP growth this year prove accurate, the region will see some of the smallest falls in... 21st July 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow and uneven recovery The economy has partially recovered from the impact of the coronavirus containment measures imposed earlier in the year, but it will be a long time before it gets back to normal. Even if there are no... 21st July 2020 · 36 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More fiscal and monetary stimulus to come We doubt that EU leaders reach a final deal on the proposed Recovery Fund at the conference which its taking place today and tomorrow in Brussels, though a deal is likely eventually. In any case, most... 17th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB makes its case (again) While we doubt that anything conclusive will be agreed at the EU summit this weekend, the likelihood of a joint fiscal package being signed off in due course is consistent with our view that the Swiss... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to remain in dovish mode At the press conference following today’s Governing Council meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde dampened any suggestion that the Bank may not use the full €1.35 trillion in its emergency purchase... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Better jobs picture will not spare office rents Despite the apparent strength of the euro-zone labour market in early Q2 data and the office sector’s inherent resilience, we still expect prime rents to fall this year on the back of the weak economy... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perky PMIs and a Riksbank surprise The June PMI surveys from the Nordics add to the evidence that the region’s economies are further down the road to recovery than others in Europe. Next week, mainland GDP data from Norway for May will... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly V-shaped after all? News that German consumers went on a spending spree in May has raised hopes that the recovery will be V-shaped after all, but the wider economy will not get back to normal for a long time yet. Next... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Luxury retail and tourism hit double whammy for Paris The hit to the luxury retail market and prolonged weakness in international tourism will cause Paris prime retail rents to decline this year for the first time since 2009. Although some rental... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU rescue fund no match for Hamilton’s handiwork While the proposed joint EU fiscal response has been hailed by some as a “Hamilton moment”, the central budget will be just one-quarter as large as a share of GDP as US federal firepower was in the... 29th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Yield rises to reverse, except for retail The sharp reduction in economic activity over the first half of the year and prolonged uncertainty have negatively impacted investment activity and occupier demand. We expect this will flow through to... 26th June 2020 · 18 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update How has office output fared? Even though working from home has meant business as usual for many office occupiers, weak activity elsewhere has still caused euro-zone office output to fall. With the economic recovery expected to be... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
