Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained Q1’s surprisingly strong gain in euro-zone GDP provided a solid start to the year. But we suspect that the figures overstate the economy’s underlying pace of expansion and there is a clear risk of a... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The euro-zone’s new earlier (“preliminary flash”) estimate of GDP confirmed the message from country data that the economy regained some pace in Q1 after the slowdown in H2 last year. But growth is... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will continue to miss its fiscal targets Political uncertainty and slowing growth imply that Spain’s budget deficit targets are too optimistic. As such, Spain looks set to breach the EU’s 3% deficit limit for at least two more years. And, in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s fall in German consumer price inflation back to negative territory and the continued weakness of the core rate will further raise the pressure on the ECB to do more to hit its inflation target... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone business and consumer confidence does not change the bigger picture that growth in the euro-zone appears to be slowing. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German retail rents to rise despite moderation in consumption growth German consumption growth is set to moderate this year and next. However, due to demographic factors, prospects for retail sales in the main cities seem stronger than for Germany as a whole. Combined... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow . While the ECB has since expanded its stimulus measures, we doubt that this will boost money and lending growth... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s German Ifo survey supports the message from other surveys like the PMI and ZEW that growth is still fairly slow . This suggests that underlying inflation will remain subdued and perhaps... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts? 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The small fall in April’s euro-zone PMI suggests that the weakening of the region’s activity surveys this year has been due to more than just concerns about overseas demand, which have eased recently... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi struck a dovish tone following the ECB’s April policy meeting and stressed that the Governing Council was prepared to offer more policy support if needed. But while we expect the... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further falls needed to bring Moscow retail rents back to reality The falls in Moscow office and industrial rents since 2014 have been largely in line with our expectations. But despite large falls in real wages, retail rents have fallen by much less than we... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update FX intervention could be on the way in Sweden Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Belgian retail rents to defy soft consumer fundamentals A softening in the retail sector has negatively impacted the wider retail market in Belgium. However, new entrants from abroad remain keen on the prime high streets and shopping centres in major... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Apr.) April’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment reflected easing concerns about the global economic environment. But perceptions of current conditions in Germany have weakened, supporting our view that... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
