Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q1) Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) Today’s final estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the economy got off to a strong start to the year, driven by household spending. But the economy is unlikely to expand as quickly throughout the rest of... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s rise in German industrial production only partially reversed the previous month’s fall and suggests that the strong growth of industrial and overall economic activity in Q1 will not be... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q1 16) Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly QE expansion uneven across the euro-zone The expansion of the ECB’s QE programme may have contributed to the recent increase in euro-zone equity prices and economic sentiment. But purchases of government bonds have increased by more in the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May.) April’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that strong consumer spending growth in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated in Q2, and thus that GDP growth will slow. Indeed, May’s final Composite PMI also... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE The recent increase in Target2 imbalances does not suggest that the euro-zone is set for another crisis on the scale of 2011/12. However, it does suggest that countries in the core might be... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation persists Euro-zone consumer price inflation remained in negative territory in May for the second consecutive month and the eighth month overall in the last 18. Fading negative energy effects mean that... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds fire but more easing still likely The ECB is in wait and see mode while it assesses the effects of its latest policy measures, but President Draghi left the door wide open to further policy action. We continue to believe that the... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) There was some good news last month for public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery as Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt and the EC decided to be lenient with Portugal and Spain after both... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving? We disagree with recent suggestions that negative central bank policy rates encourage households to increase their savings, thereby reducing demand and weighing on inflation. In fact, the opposite... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to a Brexit? A Brexit and its after-effects could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake further unconventional policy action, including measures to support the euro-zone’s financial sector, FX... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
