Europe Economics Weekly Brexit to hit France harder than Germany On the face of it, Germany seems more exposed than France to the effects of the UK leaving the EU. But in the time before the UK actually leaves the single market, France is more vulnerable than... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Manufacturing PMIs (June) May’s fall in euro-zone unemployment shows that the labour market is slowly recovering. Butemployment growth may already have peaked and there is still too much slack to generate any meaningful wage... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery Recent market movements point to a downturn in euro-zone growth, particularly in the periphery. The ECB is likely to respond by loosening monetary policy, but it cannot solve all of the euro-zone’s... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & German Retail Sales (May) June’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation into positive territory might mark the start of an upward trend, but we see little hope of inflation hitting the ECB’s target over the medium term. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Brexit, will Quitaly be next? Italian opposition to the EU is strong and several forces could cause that hostility to grow. October’s constitutional reform referendum will provide voters with an opportunity to oust the prime... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s increase in German inflation back into positive territory may well mark the start of an upward trend. But even in Germany, we do not think that inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s near 2%... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) June’s fall in euro-zone business and consumer confidence suggests that the euro-zone economy was slowing even before the UK voted to leave the EU. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit vote weakens outlook for euro-zone growth While the UK’s vote for Brexit will have only a small direct effect on euro-zone trade this year and next, the indirect effects on confidence and financial markets may be more serious. We have... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one Despite unexpected gains for the right in Spain, an anti-austerity left-wing coalition may now be more likely than opinion polls had suggested. Either way, the new government will be a very fragile... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the ECB has since introduced new stimulus measures, including its latest TLTROs, we doubt that they will boost... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which country might be next to hold an EU referendum? The UK’s vote to leave the EU has been followed by calls for referendums in other countries. And, notably, euro-scepticism in some countries seems to be even stronger than in the UK. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Immediate impact of Brexit limited for European property The UK’s decision to leave the EU is unlikely to cause a significant decline in aggregate investment activity in continental Europe. However, it could boost investor demand for commercial property in... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB needs to act decisively The UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union has put more pressure on the European Central Bank to provide additional policy support. We now expect an acceleration in the pace of the ECB’s asset... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) June’s rise in the German Ifo measure of business confidence suggests that the economy continued to grow at pretty healthy rate in Q2. But given the financial market reaction to the UK’s vote to leave... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe The UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have substantial negative effects on the European economy and raises serious doubts over the future of both the EU itself and the currency union. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece The ECB’s decision to reinstate a waiver allowing Greek banks to borrow from it at low interest rates will help to ease pressure on the banking sector. But it is very unlikely to generate a lending... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
