Europe Economics Update Greek outlook improves but crisis still not over Greece has cleared another hurdle with the disbursement of its latest bailout tranche and funds to recapitalise its banks. But until its debt burden is properly addressed, its crisis is not over. 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) & GDP Breakdown (Q3) November’s German Ifo survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the economy is still growing at a healthy pace. And the breakdown of Q3 GDP showed that, unusually for Germany... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a housing bubble inflating again in Ireland? Comments from the outgoing governor of Ireland’s central bank that he “knows” that there won’t be another housing bubble smack of hubris. While there does not appear to be a bubble in the housing... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yield compression to slow in 2016 Since our last Analyst, the greatest change has been to our yield forecasts, which are now expected to decline further than previously expected in the next couple of years. We also envisage them... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s solid rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s recovery might regain some pace in Q4 after Q3’s slight slowdown. But we doubt that the outlook has improved enough to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value growth set to peak in 2015 Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for yield compression over the next two years. Yet in most markets, lower yields in 2017 will lead to greater upward yield pressure in... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy really been the biggest beneficiary of QE? Recent suggestions that Italy has gained the most from QE paint a pretty bleak picture of the policy’s effectiveness. As it happens, we are not convinced that Italy has been the biggest winner. Either... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Nov.) The German ZEW investor survey showed that easing fears about the global environment led sentiment to improve in November and suggested that the Paris attacks have had little impact on sentiment so... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3) Norway’s oil and gas sector was not as strong in Q3 as the headline GDP data suggest. And growth in the mainland economy slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3 15) Norway’s oil and gas sector was not as strong in Q3 as the headline GDP data suggest. And growth in the mainland economy slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Spanish government bonds fairly priced? Spain has been one of the stand-out economies in the euro-zone this year. However, the recent political developments in Catalonia and Portugal are a source of concern and opinion polls suggest that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth slowdown seals case for more ECB action If there were any remaining doubts that the ECB will bow to the growing pressure to provide additional monetary policy stimulus to the euro-zone’s fragile economic recovery, Q3’s disappointing GDP... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s economy likely to continue to disappoint Today’s Italian GDP data were disappointing and we expect the economy to continue to grow at a fairly slow pace. As a result, the government debt-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to fall over the coming years... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Paris office rents finally turned a corner? The French economy is growing, but slowly, and employment growth will therefore not be particularly strong. However, with signs of a recovery in occupier activity and a tight CBD market, we expect... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
