Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data suggested that the peripheral countries continued to improve their budgetary positions at the back end of 2015. But there is a distinct risk of fiscal slippage in 2016... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Euro-zone Final Man. PMI (Dec.) December’s German CPI data confirm that the relative strength of the economy is exerting no upward pressure on inflation and support our view that the ECB will need to do more to hit its inflation... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Anaemic Belgian consumer sector suggests further retail weakness Muted economic growth in the next two years will prevent Belgian high streets from seeing much of an improvement in demand for space. As a result, we expect prime retail rental values to rise by only... 24th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Faster German wage growth is nothing to fear The recent pick-up in German wage growth is encouraging and we think that fears of a sharp rise in inflation and loss of competitiveness are unwarranted. Our one misgiving is that the ECB might... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do the latest office jobs data say about rental prospects in 2016? The latest employment data show that office employment is far outpacing total jobs growth in most euro-zone economies. And, even in economies such as Germany and France, where office jobs growth has... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish election deals another blow to austerity The inconclusive result of the Spanish general election is set to trigger a period of political uncertainty which could slow the country’s economic recovery. But it also represents another blow to the... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth supports to fade in 2016 The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Equities well placed to cope with further Fed tightening The US stock market has reacted positively to the first rate hike by the Fed, and we don’t expect it to be derailed by the onset of further tightening. Admittedly, at around 4%, the cyclically... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone employment recovery masks national divergence Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the election threaten Spain’s recovery? The likely advent of a coalition government after this Sunday’s Spanish general election looks unlikely to bring the country’s robust economic recovery to a halt. But a period of political instability... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial occupier demand set to moderate in 2016 After a record-breaking year in 2015, the latest data suggest that German industrial occupier demand will moderate next year. But, given supply constraints and occupier bases that are more aligned to... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals rate cuts next year The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone nose-dive? There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) & Final CPI (Nov.) October’s euro-zone goods trade data revealed a further slowdown in export growth, adding to the evidence that the boost from the weaker euro is fading. We suspect that the trade surplus will narrow... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI left it still pointing to steady but modest growth in the region. But the Paris attacks have taken a toll on France, leaving the economy close to... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
