Europe Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug) August’s slight rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that, while the region has so far weathered the UK’s Brexit vote, economic conditions remain fairly subdued. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal be excluded from the ECB’s QE programme? The sharp rise in Portugal’s bond yields last week reflected justified concerns about the government’s credit rating. While the Government intends to stick to the EU’s fiscal rules, slow economic... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Lower bond yields counteract falling property yields Property yields fell again in Q2 as demand for prime property remained strong. But, with mostbond yields falling in the second quarter, property still looks fairly valued. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey? Most information about Germany implies that the economy has continued to perform well after the UK’s Brexit vote. The main exception is the ZEW survey, which suggests that GDP growth could drop to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How the ECB could overcome its QE limitations If the ECB is to accelerate and extend its asset purchases next month as we anticipate, it will need to address the programme’s limitations, particularly relating to German debt. We think that the ECB... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch investment growth set to slow sharply With Dutch housing investment back at pre-crisis levels, there is little scope for further strong growth. And although interest rates are at record lows, surveys suggest that firms have little need to... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned about Lisbon property? With Lisbon office and retail valuations looking increasingly stretched, and periodic spikes in Portuguese government bond yields, the risks to property market pricing appear to be on the rise. 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) August’s German ZEW investor survey shows that sentiment has partly recovered from July’s Brexit-related decline, but it still points to a sharp slowdown in German GDP growth to come. 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s stagnation may soon turn to recession Italy’s economic recovery is slowing. And with big risks to the near-term outlook from the banking sector and the forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform, we suspect that the economy is... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP data highlight concerns about France and Italy Last week’s euro-zone Q2 GDP data revealed a strong contrast between the region’s strongest and weakest performers, with the French and Italian economies looking particularly vulnerable. In the second... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) While Q2’s GDP growth was left unrevised at 0.3% in the second estimate, the softoutlook for both growth and inflation suggests that the ECB still has more work to do. 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (July) Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow property about to turn a corner, albeit, slowly The acute phase of Russia’s latest economic crisis now appears to be behind it. However, the prospect of only a weak economic recovery means that a strong rebound of the Moscow commercial property... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul. 16) Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation? Inflation in Norway has been much stronger than the central bank forecast in June, so an interest rate cut in September looks unlikely. But we still expect inflation to fall sharply over the next 12... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
