Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data point to strong consumer spending growth in Q1, but we doubt that this will be sustained. And the downward revision to March’s Composite PMI added to signs that... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout The public spat between Greece and the IMF underlines the fragility of the country’s latest bailout deal and demonstrates that its long-term future inside the currency union is still far from assured... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment suggests that the labour market remains in reasonable health, but it is still too weak to generate any real inflationary pressure. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Central European yield falls to outstrip other European sub-regions With property yields in Western Europe at historic lows, investors are looking to core CE markets for higher income returns. This will lead to heightened competition for assets in these markets and... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing We have argued for some time that the consumer recovery, which was the main driver of growth in 2015, would slow this year. Last week brought further evidence that this process is underway. Declining... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro Recent weak activity and inflation data in the euro-zone have underlined the fact that the ECB cannot afford to simply sit back and allow the euro exchange rate to strengthen further. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cypriot success story comes with caveats Cyprus’ exit from its bailout and budding economic recovery are good news. But major challenges lie ahead in addressing non-performing loans and generating growth outside the financial services sector... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen offices set for solid, but unspectacular, rental growth We expect Denmark’s economic recovery to strengthen further, with employment growth in particular solidifying. This will drive a further pick-up in demand for offices and, although much of the new... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey, German HICP (Mar.) March’s falls in euro-zone business and consumer confidence support other evidence that the region’s slow recovery is losing pace. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that December’s interest rate cut by the ECB had only a small effect. While the Bank has since increased its stimulus, we doubt that this will boost money... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lack of labour market reform will restrict France’s recovery Although the French economy appeared to make a decent start to the year, surveys published this week supported our view that the recovery’s underlying momentum will remain very weak. And the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery back on track? Any economic effects of last week’s tragic terrorist attacks in Brussels clearly pale into insignificance compared to the loss of life and social consequences. But the direct economic impact seems... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone almost free from austerity? The shift away from growth-sapping austerity in the euro-zone is encouraging. But while fiscal policy may no longer be a drag on economic growth, the planned loosening is unlikely to provide a... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further ECB stimuli will keep euro-zone property values rising Despite the ECB’s recent monetary loosening, we expect further stimulus measures will be required to reinvigorate growth and push inflation back towards its target. This will prove to be a net... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
