Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property yield falls to continue We still think that the ECB will loosen policy this year, albeit by a little less than we had previously pencilled in. But with interest rates and bond yields still set to remain at historic lows... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.), Unemp. (Dec.) Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell to its... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jan.) The surge in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in January may yet prove to be a bit of a rogue reading. Nonetheless, it adds to signs from elsewhere in Europe that conditions for industrial firms have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Coronavirus likely to have small effect on EZ economy As long as the number of coronavirus cases remains low in Europe and contained elsewhere in the world, the impact of the virus on euro-zone GDP is likely to be small and temporary. It would need to be... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Official growth forecasts still too optimistic 24th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank on hold; Franc rises to near 3-year high Political developments in Norway this past week are no game changer for the economic outlook; we suspect that monetary policy there will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. In contrast, we... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Jan.) The unchanged reading for the euro-zone’s Composite PMI in January leaves it still consistent with fairly slow GDP growth. We think that the economy will continue to grow at a meagre pace in 2020. 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No change in ECB dovish stance for now The ECB left its policy settings unchanged today, made little change to its assessment of the economic outlook and said nothing new know about the strategy review. While the markets are pricing in no... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank on hold for foreseeable future This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate on hold at 1.50% was widely expected. We suspect that the Bank will leave rates on hold until 2022 though, if anything, our... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greater focus on housing wouldn’t alter ECB’s stance The ECB could decide in its strategy review to include owner-occupied housing costs in the measure of inflation which it targets. But we think it is unlikely to do so and, in any case, such a change... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to follow the ECB down We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is... 22nd January 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Softer employment growth to drag on occupier activity After holding up despite the slowdown in economic activity, we expect jobs growth in office-based sectors to lose momentum over the next two years, weighing on occupier demand. This underpins our... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB policy likely to push bond yields and euro down While we have altered our forecasts for ECB policy this year, we are still more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. As such, we continue to think that... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation is still low Underlying inflation pressures in the euro-zone have been building over the past five years, but so slowly that it’s barely perceptible. And rather than being the start of a new trend, the jump in... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
