Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3) & Unemployment (Sep.), HICP (Oct.) Italy’s economy eked out only a small expansion in Q3, and it looks set to continue performing very poorly over the coming years. We think that it will fail to grow at all in 2020. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer was not enough to offset the previous month’s drop and the series still suggests that activity will remain subdued into 2020. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update No upside for Dublin retail rents While the risk of a no deal Brexit has diminished, lingering uncertainty and structural headwinds are likely to put downward pressure on prime retail rents in Dublin over the next two years. 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy data overshadow Draghi’s finale Business surveys for October published this week supported our view that economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to remain anaemic until well into 2020, requiring incoming ECB President Christine... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office yields to fall another 20bps by end-2020 As valuations have improved this year and investors have become willing to accept lower yields, demand for quality Paris assets has ballooned, most likely driving a record year for French investment... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dodgy data; Switzerland goes to the polls Despite “quality flaws” in Sweden’s unemployment data, the body of economic evidence still suggests that the economy is very weak. Meanwhile, the Green Party looks set to take make sizeable gains in... 18th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No fiscal boost in 2020, Brexit deal on a knife edge Euro-zone governments have promised a fiscal stimulus in 2020, but we doubt that they will live up to their promises. Meanwhile, we expect the ECB to leave policy settings unchanged on Thursday at Mr... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch Divide and exit Mario Draghi’s last meeting as ECB president is unlikely to be the good-natured celebration of his achievements that he might have hoped for. Instead, attention will focus on the growing divisions on... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Easing cycles have further to run In keeping with our bearish view on the euro-zone, our forecasts for GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordic economies over the coming years are generally well below consensus. Switzerland is most... 16th October 2019 · 21 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone close to recession Economic growth has slowed to a crawl and is likely to remain anaemic until well into next year, even in the absence of a fresh external shock. Germany is probably in a recession already and we think... 15th October 2019 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SEK and NOK to fall further over the next six months Despite the healthy-looking activity data from Sweden for August, we are still bracing ourselves for a grim Q3 GDP figure and think that the risks to the krona are rooted to the downside. Meanwhile... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Long-term income streams top the bill in Sweden Demand for Swedish property has been on a tear this year, even as the economy has faltered. This likely reflects investor expectations that growth will be supported by even looser monetary policy over... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Divisions at the ECB won’t prevent further easing The national industrial data released this week suggest that euro-zone production rose in August. But this looks like a blip not a turning point. With growth set to slow and inflation remain subdued... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Portugal/Spain spread won’t fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Portugal has fallen below that of their counterparts in Spain this week after Portugal’s Socialist Party retained power in Sunday’s legislative elections... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The persistent weakness of underlying inflation in Sweden serves as further proof, if needed, that the Riksbank will have to shift to a more dovish stance over the next six months or so. As a result... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
