Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Prague and Warsaw to buck the positive trend in 2015 The Czech and Polish economies are motoring along nicely. However, the latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that our view, that solid demand fundamentals will be swamped by excess supply, causing rents... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB saved the euro-zone again? After saving the day with its pledge to “do whatever it takes” in 2012, the ECB has arguably now brought on a recovery with its quantitative easing programme. But we expect the policy’s effects to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger German recovery depends on export revival Last week’s data gave mixed signals about Germany. On the one hand, the second GDP release showed that Q1’s slowdown belied a strong domestic economy and May’s Ifo survey pointed to a pick-up in... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the yen remain undervalued? On several metrics, the yen appears to be the most undervalued major developed market currency: on a purchasing power parity basis and when its real effective exchange rate (REER) is compared to both... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) & GDP Breakdown (Q1) May’s small fall in the German Ifo business climate indicator left it consistent with pretty strong growth and came as a relief after bigger falls in other surveys. But the decline in businesses’... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB minutes reaffirm intention to see QE through The minutes (or “account”) of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 14th and 15th April underscored the message already given by Mario Draghi and colleagues, in the press conference after the meeting... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) China’s flash PMI remains subdued but the index rose for the first time since February, suggesting that recent policy stimulus could be starting to have an effect. Meanwhile, the uptick in the euro... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s flash euro-zone PMI survey echoed the message from other recent business surveys that growth in the currency union appears to have slowed again after the slight pick-up seen earlier in the year... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A Greek deal might be coming, but it’s only a stop-gap While a deal to address Greece’s near-term financing needs might soon emerge, this will be merely a stop-gap. The main challenge of finding a lasting solution to Greece’s debt problems lies ahead. 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Yields head lower in most markets Economic growth appears to have slowed in much of non-euro Western Europe in Q1, but maintained a solid pace in Emerging Europe, with the major exception of Russia. Russia’s troubles are also evident... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Underemployment to keep a lid on German pay growth On the face of it, the recent drop in German unemployment points to a sharp rise in wages that might make ultra-loose ECB policy difficult to justify. But there is more slack in the labour market than... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) Q1’s GDP data showed that the decline in oil prices hit the economy fairly hard. While policymakers have the tools to prevent a more severe downturn, growth is likely to remain slow by past standards... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1 15) Q1’s GDP data showed that the decline in oil prices hit the economy fairly hard. While policymakers have the tools to prevent a more severe downturn, growth is likely to remain slow by past standards... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB be happy with the first 10 weeks of QE? The ECB Governing Council has a right to be cautiously optimistic about the first ten weeks of QE. But we share its view that this does not mean that QE should end early. On the contrary, we think... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
