Weak Q1 GDP largely due to temporary factors

Euro-zone GDP data for Q1 were pretty weak. Indeed, quarterly growth in the euro-zone economy slowed from 0.7% in Q4 to just 0.4%, its weakest rate since Q3 2016. And national data showed that growth declined in France and remained subdued in Italy, while monthly data suggest Germany had a softer quarter too. But we suspect that temporary factors including bad weather explain most of the slowdown in euro-zone growth. After all, indicators of economic sentiment are likely to have been hit less hard by these “one-off” factors. And despite a small fall in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator in Q1, it remained consistent with strong GDP growth.