Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) A marked jump in lending to standing property resulted in total net lending reaching its highest level in just over 18 months in December. Although this is encouraging, several challenges remain... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Dec.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell yet again in December, to just 7.0%, capping off a remarkable year for the region’s labour market. Most of the spare capacity that built up during the pandemic now... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2021) The Q4 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that banks are contributing positively to the region’s economic recovery. It also suggests that, while house prices are rising rapidly, risks to financial... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) The decent rise in consumer credit in December suggests that, although consumers exercised a touch more caution as Omicron COVID-19 cases surged at the end of last year, the economy didn’t collapse... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The tick up in mortgage approvals in December suggested that the dip in housing market activity expected after the stamp duty holiday has already come and gone, and that transactions will stay above... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The continued resilience of the manufacturing PMIs in Switzerland and Sweden in January indicates that industry will have supported activity through a restrictions-driven soft patch for services in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) There was no cooling in the housing market at the turn of the year, as the Nationwide house price index recorded its largest January increase for 17 years. We suspect that prices will continue to... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (January) The smaller-than-anticipated fall in Germany’s inflation rate, and increase in core inflation in Portugal and Spain, suggest that underlying price pressures are continuing to build. Euro-zone... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities adjusting to the end of ultra-low real yields It is possible that equity prices will continue to struggle in the near term if central banks send more signals that they are willing to raise interest rates further in order to control inflation. But... 31st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal rebound to continue after election The Socialist Party’s victory in yesterday’s election means there will be no substantial change in economic policy, but the government should be more stable. In any case, Portugal’s economy is set to... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2021) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 came as no surprise given the country-level data published last week and shows that the euro-zone economy was struggling at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2021) The larger-than-expected 5.7% increase in Polish GDP over 2021 as a whole is consistent with another large expansion in Q4 and meant that the economy recovered faster than most other European... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Best possible outcome for Italy By re-electing Sergio Mattarella as president and ensuring that Mario Draghi remains prime minister, Italy’s political establishment has achieved what appears to be the best possible outcome. The... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Has there been a flight to quality in London offices? There is a perception that a shift in workspace preferences brought about by the pandemic has redirected demand towards higher quality office space. But while there is some evidence of a flight to... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
