Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI surveys suggest that supply problems in the manufacturing sector are getting worse, weighing on output and causing price pressures to intensify. 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online risks to retail may not be as bad as once feared By any standard, retail property has had a torrid time during the pandemic. The latest data on online sales look like further bad news, with the share of spending much higher than expected after... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB insisting that inflation is largely transient Nobody expects the ECB Governing Council to make any policy changes at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, Christine Lagarde will address concerns about rising inflationary pressures and we... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT now playing with fire after aggressive rate cut Any remaining confidence in the credibility of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) was shattered after today’s larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate cut, to 16.00%. The lira hit a fresh record low against... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail rents to recover but not surge After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Budget Preview – Restraint now, largesse later Despite the improving outlook for the public finances, the rumours that the Chancellor will set himself some fairly stringent fiscal rules suggest that there’s not going to be a net giveaway in the... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Materials shortages restrain construction Shortages of construction materials are unlikely to ease for at least another 6-12 months, restraining activity in the renovation sector and among smaller housebuilders That is likely to cap housing... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Near-term upgrades to German office rental growth Prime office rental growth in Germany is on track to be stronger than forecast in the near term. However, we think rental growth will slow in the coming years as the supply of modern space is expected... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Sep.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to climb further in the coming months as higher input and energy costs feed through. An unusually cold winter would put even more upward pressure on gas prices in the... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Sep.) The dip in CPI inflation in September feels a bit like the lull before the storm as we expect inflation to jump to close to 4.0% in October and to between 4.5% and 5.0% by April next year. As such... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
UK Economics How would the economy cope with electricity shortages? There is an outside risk that the UK could face some limited short-term rationing of electricity this winter if weather conditions were to be unfavourable. This risk isn’t yet significant enough to... 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States brush off pandemic’s economic hit GDP in the Baltic States has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels and we expect this strength to be sustained, with growth outpacing Central Europe and the euro-zone as a whole over the coming years... 18th October 2021 · 4 mins read
