Europe Economics How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone? A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However... 25th January 2022 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Tech sector valuations may have even further to fall Even though the valuations of technology stocks have, in general, already fallen sharply in recent weeks, we suspect they may decline further over the next couple of years. This is one reason why we... 25th January 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London transactions outperform, but not prices The jump in transactions during the pandemic was larger in London than other regions as the market didn’t experience the same drop in supply as elsewhere. That reflected many existing homeowners... 25th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising house prices strengthen ECB hawks’ case Euro-zone inflation would be even further above target if owner-occupied housing costs were included in the region’s headline measure. Their formal inclusion won’t take place for a few years yet, but... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (January) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Dec.) Stronger tax revenues were just enough to offset big rises in debt interest costs in December. But we don’t expect this to last: further rises in inflation will mean borrowing soon overshoots the OBR... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The third consecutive decline in the composite PMI indicates that the Omicron variant weighed further on activity in January. But the recent fall in COVID-19 cases, relaxation of restrictions and... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The small decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that Omicron has taken a toll on the services sector, though Germany performed surprisingly well. We think governments will ease restrictions... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Annual property returns hit a seven-year high Commercial property ended last year strongly. Annual rental growth climbed to a five-year high, while annual total returns crossed the 20% level. This was largely the result of dynamism in industrial... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on Italy’s presidential vote Italy’s presidential election, which will begin next week, threatens to reignite political uncertainty that has been quiescent since Mario Draghi became prime minister last year. While we agree that... 21st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly... 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian markets feel the heat, oil nearing $90pb Ukraine's financial markets remained under pressure this week as investors appear to have priced in a more serious outcome regarding Russia-Ukraine tensions. A positive reaction to today's talks... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy inflation will fall, but core will stay around 2% The key event this week (for us at least) is the publication of our forthcoming European Economic Outlook setting out forecasts for 2022 and 2023. In brief, we think the euro-zone will come through... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Green bond germination in Denmark The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Economy less favourable for whoever’s in Number 10 Although it is hard to predict whether by the end of next week Boris Johnson’s reign as Prime Minister will be solidifying or crumbling, we know that whoever is in Number 10 over the next year will... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in retail sales volumes in December was bigger than expected and supports our view that the Omicron outbreak in the run-up to Christmas may have dragged down GDP by 0.5% m/m, if not more. 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
