Energy Update Oil prices to fall as market returns to surplus in 2022 We expect a gradual normalisation in demand growth and a rebound in supply will start to weigh on oil prices from the fourth quarter. So far this year, growth in demand has outpaced supply, helping... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.) Inflation is a rare beast in Switzerland at the best of times and the lower-than-expected September print means that we now doubt it will even breach 1% this year. Against this backdrop, the stage is... 4th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose further to 19.6% y/y in September and core inflation partially reversed its recent decline, but political pressure means that the central bank is likely to cut... 4th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s hard activity data for August showed that industry has continued to struggle while loose fiscal policy has supported consumer spending. We think that consumer demand should hold up well at... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM supply constraints mount Although the emerging market manufacturing PMI ticked up last month, EM industry has been undergoing a slowdown for some time. And the surveys show that supply constraints are mounting, which is... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall Government draft budgets approved for 2022 this week in Czechia and Poland and further details of social support in Hungary suggest that fiscal policy will remain supportive of growth in Central... 1st October 2021 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly “Transitory” inflation won’t spook the ECB We have revised up our inflation forecasts this week and expect the surge in gas prices to keep inflation above the ECB’s target for longer than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, inflation looks... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy running on fumes There’s little doubt that the fuel crisis and the broadening product and labour shortages will slow the UK economy’s recovery. This comes at a time when the government is unwinding its fiscal policy... 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Opinions at Riksbank slowly starting to shift our way The minutes from the Riksbank’s last meeting, which were released this week, indicate that half of the six Executive Board members think the time is approaching to dial the dovishness back a touch... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to continue on its upward trend and we think it will soon hit 4%. That makes it more likely that the ECB will scale back its asset purchases substantially in March. But... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep) The set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for September suggest that industrial activity has so far been pretty resilient in the face of global supply-chain disruptions. That said... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Modest rate hikes won’t prevent house price gains We doubt that a larger rise in Bank Rate over the next two years than we previously expected will put much upward pressure on mortgage rates. Low interest rates and increased spending on housing costs... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further Nationalbank rate cuts not out of the question While the announcement of a 10bp interest rate cut by Denmark’s Nationalbank this afternoon seemingly goes against the grain of the recent hawkish shifts by the US Fed and Bank of England, it is the... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB could claim inflation is “transient” for years The ECB is likely to argue that the increase in inflation to above its 2% target is “transient” even if it continues for much longer than currently expected. The key question is not how long inflation... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB accelerates its tightening cycle The Czech National Bank (CNB) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 1.50%, at today’s meeting and its hawkish communications signalled that further aggressive... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk of euro-zone labour market “cliff edge” very low Euro-zone governments’ reduction in support for jobs will not cause unemployment in the region to jump, since there are now relatively few workers benefiting, and hiring activity is strong. But... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
