Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Money growth has slowed this year and is likely to decline further next year. Meanwhile, although the pandemic has resulted in a huge increase in the money supply, we do not think this will cause... 27th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s labour force likely to make full recovery Since the start of the pandemic, Italy has experienced a bigger drop in its workforce than other euro-zone countries. But that largely reflects temporary factors, which suggests that the labour force... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 27 th October and to provide some... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (October) The fourth successive monthly fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index provides more evidence – if it were needed – that supply side disruption is causing the German economy to slow sharply and suggests... 25th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Risk of stronger French industrial rental growth ahead We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery gathers momentum September was another good month for commercial property, with the first year-on-year rental growth recorded since the onset of COVID-19. But as clouds gather over the economic upturn, we suspect that... 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Are consumer spending habits returning to normal? We don’t have much timely official data on the detailed breakdown of consumption. But the available evidence shows a sharp (albeit uneven) increase in spending on services since the end of Q2. While... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Surging virus cases and the re-imposition of lockdowns A renewed wave of COVID-19 cases has prompted some governments to reimpose strict containment measures across Emerging Europe and talk of lockdowns is now becoming more widespread. The experience so... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors overestimating interest rate hikes The extent of the shift in investors’ expectations of interest rates over the past month has been staggering. Investors are now pricing in an 80% chance of a hike to Bank Rate, from 0.10% to 0.25%, at... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates its tightening cycle again Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle again at today’s meeting with a larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate hike, to 7.50%, and the hawkish tone of the accompanying... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Fiscal policy back in focus The upward shift in investors’ interest rate expectations over the past month has been remarkable. While it is impossible to predict the timing of the first rate hike with any certainty, we have more... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply issues biting in Sweden; e-krona has a logo! We assume that Swedish output recovered about two thirds of August’s precipitous plunge in September, and that preliminary Q3 GDP data due for release next week will show that the economy grew by 0.7%... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Sep.) & Flash PMIs (Oct.) The fifth consecutive fall in retail sales in September, together with signs that non-retail spending was also weak, supports our view that the economic recovery slowed to a crawl last month. But... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
