Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) The latest RICS Construction Survey indicated that activity in Q1 remained solid, while sentiment about for the next 12 months remained optimistic. But it also showed that labour and supply shortages... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to resume its tightening cycle in June As was widely expected, the Norges Bank left interest rates on hold at +0.75% today and all but confirmed that “the policy rate will […] be raised in June”. After June, we forecast two more rate hikes... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp increase to 70.0% y/y in April and there’s a strong chance that it moves beyond its peak in the early 2000s in the coming months. Despite this... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may need more than promises to contain spreads The prospect of tighter monetary policy in the euro-zone has raised the threat of a bigger sell-off in the region’s bond markets. If this happens, we think the ECB would ultimately intervene to... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) The decrease in euro-zone retail sales in March is the first indication from official data that the war in Ukraine is weighing on consumption. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Net lending to property eased for a third consecutive month in March, but continued to show growth. We expect increasing economic headwinds and structural changes within some sectors to weigh on... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) The decent increase in unsecured borrowing in March suggests that the plunge in consumer confidence and fall in real incomes have not caused consumer spending to collapse. This lends some support to... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Unchanged mortgage approvals in March showed that the housing market remained buoyant throughout the first quarter. But the emerging trend of rising mortgage rates on new loans rising will only... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office yields most vulnerable to rising interest rates While the low level of prime industrial yields compared to history leaves the sector vulnerable to rising interest rates, a fair value analysis that incorporates our expectations for rental growth... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Low equilibrium rates will limit ECB policy tightening Equilibrium real interest rates in the euro-zone appear to be below zero and lower than in most other advanced economies. We expect them to stay that way. While the ECB is likely to raise interest... 3rd May 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe’s supply problems still intense The timeliest surveys show that supply problems faced by euro-zone companies have eased a little this year, but remain intense. This will continue to weigh on production and keep inflation high. UK... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell to a new record low in March, and the latest business surveys suggest that employment will continue to increase at a decent pace. With the surveys also showing... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Stagflation may prolong the woes of euro-zone financial markets The latest euro-zone economic data reinforce our view that the region is headed for a year of stagflation; against this backdrop we expect that euro-zone assets and the euro will struggle over the... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
