UK Economics GDP (Sep. & Q3) The economy regained some momentum in September, but continued shortages and the drag on real incomes from higher utility prices probably mean it will soon fizzle out. That’s one reason why we doubt... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Fossil-like Norway won’t go the way of the dinosaurs The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, will not have any discernible impact on Norway’s intention to keep pumping oil and gas over the coming decades. The irony is that Norway’s success in... 10th November 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Energy Focus Lessons from the EU’s carbon permit market This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its... 10th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (October) The breakdown of October’s inflation data confirms that most of the increase, from 4.1% in September to 4.6% on the HICP measure, was due to higher energy prices. We suspect that inflation will edge... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Which measure of GDP should we believe? The divergence between the quarterly and the monthly measures of GDP have left it unclear whether the economy is still languishing at about 2.0% below its pre-pandemic level or if it is nearing that... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation The sharp tightening of monetary policy in the region will strengthen the preference for savings, dampen lending growth and raise debt servicing costs next year. It is plausible to think that higher... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Higher interest rates to dab on the brakes We think it will take longer than most others expect for rising interest rates to bring down the curtain on the COVID-19 house price boom. A large stock of household savings, the ongoing adjustment to... 8th November 2021 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Update Effect of shortages on activity and inflation will persist There is growing evidence that global goods shortages are weighing on euro-zone activity. We expect this to contribute to a marked slowdown in growth in Q4, and the outlook for early 2022 is no better... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus developments in EMs The COVID-19 situation in many EMs has improved markedly over the past month or so as new infections have fallen sharply and vaccine rollouts have gathered pace. That said, the recent surge in virus... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu The Israeli budgets for 2021 and 2022 passed this week – the first approved budgets in three years – don’t make a big difference to the direction of fiscal policy, but contain key reforms that may... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Mixed messages, but BoE clear rates won’t rise far next year It is fair to say that the Bank of England’s communications on the timing of the first interest rate hike have been muddled. But the Bank has been much clearer in its warning to the financial markets... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB pushes back as inflation pressures build ECB policymakers were out in force this week insisting that the Bank will not raise rates next year. We agree that they are very unlikely to do so, not least because we think the Bank’s inflation... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Déjà vu at the SNB; labour shortages reach Greenland The renewed rise in the Swiss franc has lifted it back to territory that will ring alarm bells at the SNB, and the usual release of sight deposit data on Monday morning will indicate whether the Bank... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
