UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s punchy flash PMIs provide even more evidence that the economy has rebounded swiftly after the hit from Omicron. And beneath the headline numbers, there are tentative but encouraging signs... 21st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The surge in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI in February suggests that activity is recovering well and supports our view that GDP will rise by around 0.5% q/q in Q1. There are tentative signs that... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s economic recovery continued to motor along at the start of this year as industrial production and retail sales growth picked up sharply in January. This came alongside further signs of an... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack The upside looks limited for Russia’s stock market The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2021) The 4.7% expansion in Russian GDP in 2021 is consistent with a marked acceleration in growth in Q4. We expect the recovery to slow this year but the backdrop of a large and positive output gap will... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property recovery moves down a gear The worst of the Omicron wave appears to have passed and we expect growth to rebound later this year, albeit weighed down by weak consumer income growth. But persistently high inflation is now set to... 18th February 2022 · 26 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine, Israel’s blockbuster GDP, EU funds Russia-Ukraine tensions dominated the headlines again this week and all of our research on the global implications, Ukraine's economy and the rest of the region can be found here. Meanwhile... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB consensus building on policy normalisation While Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated further still this week, the economic spillovers to the euro-zone are likely to be limited and are therefore unlikely to change the ECB’s policy assessment... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Russia/Ukraine and the risks to inflation If a Russia/Ukraine conflict were to materialise, the likely upward pressure on energy prices would keep UK inflation higher for longer via higher fuel prices in the near term and rising utility bills... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s CPI surprise; Norway’s glitterati have dinner The pick-up in underlying price pressures in Sweden in January plays into the hands of the Riksbank’s hawks, who are likely to flex their talons, and makes it even more difficult for Cecilia Skingsley... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Replay of 2017 French election fears unlikely this time French President Macron is on course to win re-election in April by a comfortable margin, and is likely to push for a lower tax burden and pension reform in his second term. His main rival Marine Le... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The increase in Swedish CPIF excluding energy was significantly higher than expected and pushed the core rate above the Riksbank’s 2.0% target for the first time in nearly three years. While we expect... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Jan.) A solid rebound in retail sales in January suggests the hit to activity from Omicron was smaller and shorter than previously thought. Even so, the cost of living crisis will restrain retail sales this... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies inflation surge and leaves rates on hold The further rise in inflation to close to 50% y/y in January was clearly not enough to sway Turkey’s central bank (and crucially, President Erdogan) to shift back to orthodoxy as the one-week repo... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
