UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Unsurprisingly, mortgage lending spiked in September as buyers rushed to complete before the stamp duty taper period ended. More notable is the resilience of mortgage approvals, suggesting that the... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Czech GDP (Q3) The rise in Poland’s headline inflation rate to 6.8% y/y in October opens the door for the central bank to deliver a 25bp at next week’s MPC meeting. Elsewhere, Czechia’s economy performed a little... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) While many economies in Europe are facing the twin headwinds of supply constraints and high gas prices, the KOF Economic Barometer in October suggests that the Swiss economy continued to grow strongly... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to fall further, mitigating shortages Data published this week provide more evidence that the supply of labour has held up fairly well in the euro-zone and that those who have left the labour market have probably not done so permanently... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus outbreaks shine spotlight on vaccine hesitancy The surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Eastern Europe has prompted the re-imposition of restrictions and it looks like measures will be stepped up, weighing on recoveries in Q4. Tight restrictions... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticking to view that inflation is transient The ECB stuck to its script today, arguing that although the increase in inflation now underway will be larger and last longer than previously anticipated, it is still temporary. Meanwhile... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment to peak later next year The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from high energy prices Oil, gas and coal prices have reached multi-year highs in recent weeks and this Update takes a look at some of the implications for the region. In short, an improvement in Russia’s terms of trade has... 28th October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics BoE fast out of the blocks on rates, but won’t go the distance We now think there’s a high chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday 4 th November. It may then raise rates to 0.50% in... 28th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for October increased a touch, but the details show that expectations for production declined slightly, probably due to the worsening supply chain problems. So... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October showed that sentiment in industry and services softened across most of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. With rising virus cases adding... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q3) & ETI (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected growth in Swedish GDP in Q3 shows that the recovery continued apace over the summer, lifting activity even further above its pre-pandemic level. But while business... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
