Europe Economics Focus The fiscal cost of the Ukraine war We estimate that euro-zone governments’ fiscal deficits will be around 1% higher than expected this year, as a result of the war in Ukraine, mostly due to government subsidies for energy, support for... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Financial conditions as tight as after the Brexit vote The war in Ukraine has contributed to a tightening in financial conditions that will contribute to weaker GDP growth for the rest of this year and next year. Admittedly, a lot of the initial plunges... 29th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Long Run Update The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis The main long-run economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis will be to boost the workforce of countries where the migrants settle, partially offsetting the unfavourable demographics that many of... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property eased further in February, though it remained in positive territory. We expect lending trends to remain fairly subdued as both economic and sector specific challenges loom over... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The leap in credit card borrowing in February and smaller increase in household savings could suggest that the cost of living crisis is already starting to bite. But we think it is more likely that... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Higher than usual home moving activity ensured that mortgage approvals remained substantially above pre-virus levels in February. But the decline compared to January could be an early sign that rises... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update European steel prices to remain high for some time yet We expect European steel prices to remain elevated this year given sharply higher production costs and disruption caused by lower imports from Russia and Ukraine. That said, prices should ease back... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our forecasts for consumption growth With euro-zone inflation set to average around 6% this year, we expect aggregate real household incomes to fall by about 1.5%. The impact on consumption will be cushioned to some extent by fiscal... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian markets re-open, gas payments & refugees The resumption of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange this week marked the first steps towards rolling back crisis measures, but policymaking in Russia remains erratic as highlighted by President... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EU struggles to agree on next steps for energy EU leaders have struggled to agree on whether to impose more curbs on Russian energy and on how to best support households and firms in the face of spiralling energy prices. But most national... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Anna Breman baffles a bunch of students The finer points of Anna Breman’s views on the outlook for Riksbank policy were probably lost on her audience of a group of secondary students in a speech this week, but the message for avid Riksbank... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shift towards higher taxes and spending is here to stay Far from reducing the tax burden, the Chancellor is set to preside over the biggest tax share of GDP since 1949 under Clement Attlee's post-war Labour government. So if Rishi Sunak wants to be... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the north-south divide closing for industrial? The latest data from the industrial sector were predictably upbeat with strong take-up and dwindling supply driving rapid rental growth. There were also signs of important shifts across UK markets... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (March) March’s Ifo business survey provides further evidence that Germany is heading for a sharp slowdown as the war in Ukraine and sky-high energy prices cause manufacturing output to contract. However, we... 25th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Feb.) The small fall in retail sales in February probably had more to do with the shift back towards non-retail spending and the impact of Storm Eunice than it did the cost of living crisis. But, with... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Peak demand Most leading indicators of housing market activity and house prices remain strikingly buoyant, but the first signs that demand will soften are now appearing. There is no question that house prices... 24th March 2022 · 9 mins read
