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IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed further significant downgrades for total returns in 2022 and 2023, as higher interest rates have boosted yields and a looming recession cuts rental growth next year. Total returns of -2.3% and -2.4% respectively are below our forecast and, given our more downbeat view on rents, that looks to reflect a larger rise in yields. But over the longer term, our view that total returns over 2022-26 will be around 4.0% p.a. is close to the consensus forecast of 3.6% p.a.

UK Housing Drop-In (1st Dec.): Nationwide house price data is expected to confirm the start of the drop we’ve long been forecasting. But how far will they fall in this cycle, and how will that impact the broader industry? Register here to join this special 20-minute briefing with our UK Property team.

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