UK Economics Weekly Our forecasts in 2025 – Inflation miss, Bank Rate hit At this time of year it is useful to look back at how your forecasts have done and to learn from any mistakes to improve your future forecasts. Both we and the consensus underestimated inflation again... 12th December 2025 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF UK Commercial Property Consensus Forecasts (Dec. 25) The December IPF consensus survey forecasted all-property total returns of 7.8% p.a. over 2025-29, more-or-less unchanged from September. Indeed, the total return forecast has been stable for all of... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tempering the optimism Market moves over the past fortnight show that investors are becoming more optimistic about the euro-zone economy, but we are less bullish on the growth outlook. Meanwhile, the recent acceleration in... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2025) With the economy still contending with the drags from high interest rates, higher taxes and weak overseas demand, the surprise 0.1% m/m contraction in the economy in October (consensus forecast +0.1%... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the Budget mean for UK commercial property? With our 10-year gilt yield forecast unchanged and the impact of changes to business rates broadly revenue neutral over the next five year years, we are not changing are commercial property forecasts... 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch Balance to tip in favour of a rate cut We think the balance will tip in favour of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% on Thursday 18th December. But it will be close. And with Bank Rate now within the Bank’s 2-4% estimate of the neutral... 11th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property recovery losing steam The recovery in European commercial property values is slowing and we think this will continue as soft economic growth weighs on rents and elevated interest rates limit yield-driven capital gains... 11th December 2025 · 23 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC signals limited stimulus but some rebalancing The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggests that monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive next year but that any additional easing will be modest. Instead, the focus... 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on hold over coming quarters The Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 1.75% next week and will probably leave its forward guidance unchanged, saying that it will maintain the current policy rate for some time to come. Norges... 11th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s negative rate reluctance to be tested next year The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation and kept faith that its zero interest policy rate will be sufficient to boost inflation in the medium term. We think it will be less relaxed next... 11th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle today with a 150bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 38.00%, was accompanied by relatively hawkish communications... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Risks skewed towards ECB cuts in 2026 Stronger-than-expected economic data and recent comments by Isabel Schnabel have pushed up investors’ interest rate expectations for the coming years. Christine Lagarde will acknowledge the... 11th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (December 2025) The SNB shrugged off lower-than-expected inflation in the fourth quarter and kept its policy rate at zero. However, we think it will be less relaxed next year, when we expect inflation to average just... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2025) Despite three quarters of the survey responses being gathered after the Budget, November’s RICS survey suggests buyer sentiment fell further in November even though actual housing activity and prices... 11th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
