UK Data Response GDP (Dec. & Q4) The economy escaped a recession in 2022 by the skin of its teeth (£77m to be precise). But with the full drags from high inflation and high interest rates yet to be felt, we think there will be a... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think bond yields will fall further despite QT Shrinking central bank balance sheets might push up “term premia” on long-dated government bonds, but we think their yields will nonetheless fall a bit further this year. 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high-beta DM currencies face near-term headwinds We expect “high-beta” developed market currencies to weaken against the dollar over the coming months as risk sentiment worsens and, in some cases, yield gaps move against them. But we anticipate a... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office slowdown underway Slowing jobs growth, a tech-driven slump in net absorption and a strong supply pipeline underline our view that Dublin prime office rents will fall slightly this year. This would mark a sharp... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Recession to trigger larger rise in insolvencies than the GFC We think business insolvencies may rise to a record high of around 8,400 per quarter by Q2 2024 and take until at least early 2025 to return to a more “normal” level of just over 4,000 per quarter... 9th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Russia for December were relatively weak, but Q4 was a bit stronger than we had expected and the economy is likely to have expanded slightly... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Surge in property yield helps valuations improve A surge in property yields helped commercial property valuations improve for the first time in two years in the final quarter of 2022. Jumps in alternative asset yields late last year following the... 8th February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook is less grim, but recession still likely Since the full effects of the previous surge in energy prices and the hike in interest rates have yet to be felt, we still think the economy will succumb to a recession this year. Admittedly, pandemic... 8th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Revised GDP profile adds to the downside A stronger than expected end to last year only postpones the euro-zone recession in our view. That will weigh slightly more heavily on property performance this year, as all-property rents may now... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tighter monetary policy starting to bite The latest business surveys suggest that the euro-zone will stagnate or suffer only a mild recession, but the money and credit data paint a much gloomier picture. Net lending was negative in December... 7th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) After proving resilient for most of 2022, German industrial production slumped in December, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession. 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) We suspect that the pause in house price falls in January reported by Halifax will prove temporary. Despite the slight decline in mortgage rates, affordability still looks far too stretched for house... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE’s energy crisis: looking beyond this winter The energy crisis in Central and Eastern Europe has lost some of its bite as natural gas prices have slumped and countries have made good progress in replacing Russian energy supplies. This has... 6th February 2023 · 25 mins read
