UK Economics Shift towards higher taxes and spending is here to stay Far from reducing the tax burden, the Chancellor is set to preside over the biggest tax share of GDP since 1949 under Clement Attlee's post-war Labour government. So if Rishi Sunak wants to be... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the north-south divide closing for industrial? The latest data from the industrial sector were predictably upbeat with strong take-up and dwindling supply driving rapid rental growth. There were also signs of important shifts across UK markets... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (March) March’s Ifo business survey provides further evidence that Germany is heading for a sharp slowdown as the war in Ukraine and sky-high energy prices cause manufacturing output to contract. However, we... 25th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Feb.) The small fall in retail sales in February probably had more to do with the shift back towards non-retail spending and the impact of Storm Eunice than it did the cost of living crisis. But, with... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Peak demand Most leading indicators of housing market activity and house prices remain strikingly buoyant, but the first signs that demand will soften are now appearing. There is no question that house prices... 24th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds gathering over the near-term outlook Activity in large parts of the emerging world has rebounded following the easing of Omicron waves, but the war in Ukraine has caused the growth outlook for most EMs to worsen again. While commodity... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Rising pressure on property yields Property demand in the Scandinavian and Swiss markets is expected to hold up this year, as they are more insulated from the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine on economic activity. However... 24th March 2022 · 18 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The surprisingly small fall in the composite activity PMI in March suggests that the war in Ukraine didn’t take that much steam out of the economy at the end of the first quarter. That said, the... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank dials up hawkishness as SNB bides time Ida Wolden Bache kicked off her time in charge at the Norges Bank with a rate hike and prepared the ground for even more aggressive tightening. We now expect 175bps of hikes by end-2023, to 2.50%, and... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s euro-zone PMI survey is consistent with our view that the economy will grow more slowly than most anticipate this year, while inflation will overshoot expectations. Commodities Drop-In (24... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Fiscal Statement – Big political bang, smaller economic boost The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, provided more support to the economy than we had expected over the next few years in today’s Spring Fiscal Statement, but he could have gone further in 2022/23. Instead... 23rd March 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of going cold turkey with Russian oil An EU embargo on Russian oil would push up oil prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis facing consumers. However, while there would be logistical challenges, oil supplies would be easier to... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The huge fall in consumer confidence in March suggests that consumption may have contracted as the war in Ukraine and higher energy prices reduced households’ willingness and ability to spend. In turn... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
