Asset Allocation Update What Russia’s exclusion means for MSCI’s EM EMEA Index Even though the ejection of Russia from the MSCI EM EMEA Index has changed its country and sector composition, we doubt that this will meaningfully change how it tends to behave. Our forecasts for... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB cannot ignore surging inflation for long With euro-zone inflation having jumped to 7.5% in March it seems increasingly likely that the ECB will accelerate its plans to tighten monetary policy. We now think it will begin raising rates as soon... 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Hold the press! SNB to join the hiking party this year The fact that we expect the ECB to hike interest rates sooner and faster than we previously anticipated shifts the goalposts for the SNB and, after a prolonged period of policy hibernation, brings... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Real income hit and recession risk There are two reasons why we are not expecting the fall in real incomes triggered by the rise in a host of prices and taxes from today to lead to a recession. First, further rises in employment and... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.) With euro-zone inflation rising even further above the ECB’s forecast, and likely to remain very high for the rest of the year, we think it won’t be long before the Bank starts raising interest rates. 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the London retail premium be reasserted? The rental growth premium enjoyed by Central London shops has disappeared in the pandemic. And we don’t expect it to reopen, as lower footfall in the capital, the slow recovery in tourist arrivals and... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Mar.) Swiss inflation rose further above the SNB’s definition of price stability in March, and higher commodity prices and continued supply problems will keep it there for most of this year. Given the... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slows tightening, but more on the horizon The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the third consecutive month today with a 50bp rate hike to 5.00%, but hawkish communications after the meeting suggest that... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: what’s at stake? Fidesz is looking the most likely to retain power in Hungary’s election this weekend, which will pave the way for four more years of tensions with the EU over the rule of law and raise the likelihood... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone exports will slow to a crawl Weakening GDP growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners – and a slump in Russia’s economy – mean that the currency union’s exports look set to grow very slowly this year. 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone unemployment rate edged down yet again in February, to a record low of 6.8%. There is little sign yet that this is feeding through to higher wages. But labour market conditions are set... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has Prague industrial pricing gone too far? The strength of Prague industrial performance last year exceeded expectations but also left valuations looking highly stretched. While there are risks stemming from trade links with Russia, we think... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q4 Final) The leap in inflation was behind the fall in real household disposable incomes in Q4 of last year. But it is encouraging that households appear willing to reduce their saving rate in order to carry on... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) The acceleration in house price growth to an 18-year high of 14.3% will add to concerns that the pandemic housing market boom is getting out of hand. With mortgage rates rising, house price inflation... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t wait much longer to start rate hikes With the Ukraine war and pandemic-related prices pressures still much stronger than anticipated, we think the ECB will not want to wait much longer before beginning to raise interest rates. Our new... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
