UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun.) The fact that the composite PMI didn’t fall in June means the economy could be holding up a little better than we and the Bank of England had feared. Beneath the headline numbers, the survey also... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rising interest rates to speed up property correction The weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates are expected to weigh on property performance. With valuations under increasing pressure from sharply rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2022 · 31 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank joins the “50bp club” This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its key policy rate by 50bps, to 1.25%, was in line with our non-consensus forecast. Also, as we predicted, the Bank all but confirmed that it will... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) June’s euro-zone PMI surveys showed a further slowdown in the services sector, while activity in the manufacturing sector now seems to be falling outright. With the price indices remaining extremely... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (May) The larger-than-expected rise in public borrowing in May is an early blow for the government on a day when it is expected to lose two by-elections. What’s more, the combination of a further weakening... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs of a slowdown emerging Annual all-property rental growth reached a five-year high in May, while returns rose to levels last seen in mid-1994. But signs of a slowdown also emerged, especially in the red-hot industrial sector... 22nd June 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in CPI inflation from 9.0% in April to a new 40-year high of 9.1% in May won’t prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates further, but it may encourage it to opt again... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Jubilee bank holiday makes life hard for the Bank of England By cutting GDP growth by about 0.3-0.4 percentage points (ppts) in Q2 and raising GDP growth by a similar amount in Q3, the impact of the extra bank holiday to mark the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee will... 21st June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation broadening out Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing their worst bout of inflation since the late-1990s as surging food and energy prices have added to strong core price pressures across a broad... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates begin to take their toll The rise in mortgage rates from a low of 1.5% last November to 1.8% in April is beginning to weigh on home purchase demand, with the new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS survey dropping into... 20th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Loss of majority curtails Macron’s second term plans French President Emmanuel Macron faces five difficult years after losing his absolute majority in parliament. Proposed reforms, including to pensions and benefits, will be diluted if they happen at... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New ECB instrument, same old problems The best way for the ECB to contain peripheral bond spreads would be via a new programme of unlimited, flexible bond purchases. This may be what happens eventually, but we suspect it will take longer... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will Manchester office rental growth outperform again? After a more severe downturn in 2020, Manchester office rental growth has caught up with other regional cities in recent quarters. While employment growth and occupier activity may remain fairly weak... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Erik Thedéen a safe pair of hands to succeed Ingves The appointment of Erik Thedéen as the new Governor of the Riksbank will only strengthen the relationship between the Bank and the financial regulator, and could result in more macroprudential powers... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
