Europe Commercial Property Update Which predictions did we get right in 2021? While office performance surprised on the upside and we could have been much bolder in our forecast for industrial yield falls, our other forecasts for 2021 proved to be broadly correct. 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: wage-price spiral a growing risk in 2022 With central banks across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) raising interest rates to tackle inflation, we think the risks of a wage-price spiral are low. Even so, persistently above-target inflation... 5th January 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics A catch-up on COVID Given the huge surge in cases throughout December, the COVID-19 situation is once again set to be the biggest determinant of the performance of the economy over the first few months of 2022. We aren’t... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The final Composite PMIs for December confirm that the euro-zone economy ended 2021 on a weak note, consistent with our view that GDP rose by only about 0.2% q/q in Q4. They also suggest that price... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP tightening continues as inflation hits fresh high The National Bank of Poland (NBP) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 2.25% today and we expect at least another 75bp of tightening, to 3.00%, in the next few months. But with energy bills set... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) Mortgage approvals stabilised in November, consistent with other evidence that demand remained robust after the stamp duty holiday ended. Even though approvals have softened to a similar level to 2019... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Declines in lending for both standing property and new developments resulted in total net lending moving back into negative territory in November. The outlook is for credit conditions to remain tight... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Nov.) The healthy rise in consumer credit in November adds to evidence that economic activity strengthened in the middle of Q4. But that feels like a distant memory now. Against a backdrop of surging COVID... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No Christmas cheer for shopping centres The recent sale of a 25% share of the Bluewater shopping centre has provided further evidence of the slump in retail values. And while there are signs that the worst of the correction may now be over... 24th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Strength to persist into 2022 The continued strength of the housing market after the end of the stamp duty holiday shows that it was far more than the tax break that kept prices surging in 2021. The three key drivers of demand -... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Istanbul industrial rental growth to slow sharply Despite tight supply and the boost to demand from e-commerce, we think Turkey’s recent currency crisis will further weigh on Istanbul industrial rents and that rental growth will slow sharply after... 23rd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher This year’s surge in natural gas prices means that HICP inflation may be up to one percentage point higher next year than it would otherwise have been. However, aggregate energy inflation is still... 22nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB delivers another hawkish shock The Czech National Bank (CNB) hiked rates by 100bp (to 3.75%) today and Governor Rusnok struck an incredibly hawkish tone after the meeting. The tightening cycle clearly has further to run and we now... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Hotel occupancy will continue to struggle in 2022 International travel restrictions and domestic containment measures have dealt the hotel sector a massive blow over the last two years. The outlook for the sector is more positive, but a slow... 22nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q3 2nd Estimate) Today’s release indicates the economy had a bit less momentum in Q3 than we had previously thought. And, with early signs the Omicron variant has hit activity, growth is sure to have slowed further in... 22nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
