UK Economics Omicron may weaken activity but lift price pressures While the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has increased the downside risks to our GDP forecasts, it has arguably increased the upside risks to our CPI inflation forecasts. The... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (October) The rebound in auto output in October means that aggregate industrial production may increase in the fourth quarter. But with the services sector being hit hard by new Covid restrictions, it seems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) The construction PMI rose for a second-consecutive month in October, to its highest level since July. However, we expect continued labour and supply shortages to hamper output in the near term. 6th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Omicron & tightening cycles, Turkey into the unknown While a lot is still unknown about the Omicron variant, we don’t think it will prevent central banks from delivering further large interest rate hikes - Poland will be a case in point next week, where... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Christmas parties, Omicron inflation risks, MPC’s dilemma Some tentative evidence may already be emerging that the Omicron COVID-19 variant may have softened economic activity. It’s less clear what it means for inflation and there’s a risk that it... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months. 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth hits a three-year high Commercial property’s recent good run continued in October. The annual rate of rental growth surged ahead after only breaching positive territory for the first time in almost two years during August... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Polish industry resilience than meets the eye Poland’s industrial sector as a whole has shaken off widespread materials shortages in recent months, in part due to its more diversified sectoral make-up than the rest of CEE. But it also reflects... 2nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Oct.) While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
