Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) November’s detailed inflation breakdown shows that the increase in price pressures is not just due to high energy costs and global demand-supply imbalances for durable goods. Services inflation has... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (December) The fall in the Ifo BCI for December underlines that German’s economy has been hit hard by the latest Covid wave even before the Omicron variant has taken hold. The only consolation is that... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The strong growth in retail sales in November feels like a bit of a consolation prize for retailers who are now once again facing a difficult Christmas in light of the rapidly worsening Omicron... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank has some catching up to do The Riksbank (along with the RBNZ) is one of the few major central banks not to have a scheduled meeting in December. But with the Fed having put its hawkish cards on the table, rate hikes by the Bank... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Interest rate lift off highlights risks While the hike in Bank Rate from 0.10% to 0.25% came a little earlier than we expected, it does not change our view that the overall rise in interest rates over the next couple of years will be modest... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to continue, but gradually reduce, QE next year The ECB confirmed today that it will reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases to €40bn by April next year. It plans to reduce them to €20bn by October and then continue as long as necessary. We... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics MPC begins lift-off but rates unlikely to soar The surprise hike in interest rates by the Bank of England today, from 0.10% to 0.25%, could just be a case of the Bank moving a bit quicker than expected, but the hawkish tone of the commentary... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail to make a comeback in 2022 With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming... 16th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT continues to defy orthodoxy in face of lira crisis Turkey’s central bank shrugged off a currency crisis, rising inflation as well as the recent hawkish turn from the Fed and remained obedient to President Erdogan by cutting its one-week repo rate by... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in euro-zone hourly wage growth in Q3 is a sign of base effects fading and there is no evidence that this is the beginning of a wage-price spiral that would concern the ECB. Indeed, wage... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The fall in the composite PMI in December doesn’t come as much of a surprise given the surge in cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. But it was much bigger than expected, and shows that caution... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in December suggests that growth slowed to a crawl as tighter restrictions and growing consumer caution are taking their toll on economic activity, with the... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to stay ahead of the Fed as SNB holds pat While the Swiss National Bank maintained the status quo once again this morning (yawn), the Norges Bank continued its tightening cycle, as expected, and opened the door to another rate hike in March... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key areas of Omicron uncertainty Given the fast-moving virus situation in Europe, and mindful of the fact that Omicron won’t be taking a festive break, this Update identifies five key areas of uncertainty to watch over the coming... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
