Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The Ifo survey for May suggests that activity in Germany may be holding up a little better than we had feared. But the headline Business Climate Index is still consistent with GDP contracting in year... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q2 and the effects of the war in Ukraine will remain a key headwind over the coming months. That said, we... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (May) The small increase in euro-zone consumer confidence in May left it only slightly higher than its low point at the start of the pandemic. With confidence extremely low and real incomes squeezed by high... 20th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Interest rate rises hasten property slowdown The worsening monetary outlook is expected to weigh on property performance. With inflation set to peak at 10% y/y that will force interest rate to 3.0% next year. This will reverse the recent... 20th May 2022 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary tightening, ruble strength, Bulgaria support Officials in Hungary sought this week to reassure investors that they will tackle inflation and mounting macro imbalances. Tighter policy is needed, which underpins our below-consensus growth... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly High inflation, record trade deficit Data released over the past week revealed that the euro-zone recorded its first monthly current account deficit since 2012 and provided further evidence that underlying price pressures are building... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation to rise further and linger longer than in the US and EZ Not only did the surge in CPI inflation to 9.0% in April leave inflation in the UK above the rates in both the US and the euro-zone, but inflation in the UK will probably rise further and stay higher... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Historical experience highlights recession risks History suggests that the surge in energy prices over the past year means there is a good chance that the euro-zone will suffer a recession in 2022. It also suggests that it will be tricky for the ECB... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly strong rise in retail sales in April suggests the cost of living crisis hasn’t caused consumer spending to collapse and means the economy may have a little more momentum than we... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental growth approaching a peak Record high rental growth at the start of the year is likely to mark a peak given signs that tenant demand is starting to ease. But strong wage growth and the rising cost of buying as mortgage rates... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update End of negative rates is nigh! The account of the ECB’s April meeting shows that a lot of policymakers thought the criteria for rate hikes had already been met. Since then, the case for rate hikes has only strengthened. While not... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Weak confidence doesn’t make spending crash inevitable The recent collapse in consumer confidence to a near-record low has added to the probability that the UK experiences a recession this year. But households’ large stock of savings and the tightness in... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Rental growth steps up CEE economies and property markets started the year on a solid footing. Strong quarterly increases in office and industrial rents supported CEE all-property values in Q1, though yield compression... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2022) The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
