Africa Economics Update South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be The surprisingly bad fall in South African GDP in Q1 has raised fears that the economy could enter recession in Q2. We’ll know more in the next few weeks as May’s activity figures are published, but... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit, EMs and some common questions There are already some signs that following the initial shock of the Brexit vote, financial markets in EMs are starting to stabilise. In this Update, we outline four common questions that we have been... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks continue to build in China A continued build-up of private sector debt in China is increasing financial risks. We don’t expect the sharp rise in credit to cause imminent problems, but we are concerned about sustainability in... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa sinking? We expect that African economic growth this year will fall far below even 2015’s very poor result. The weakness will be concentrated in the region’s largest economies, most of which are still... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth starting to turn a corner EM growth has shown some signs of life in recent months. GDP data for Q1 showed a rise in aggregate growth for the first time since 2013 and our GDP Tracker suggests that the improvement continued in... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading for May, of 6.1% y/y, will provide welcome relief for the Reserve Bank. Barring a surprising rise in June’s inflation figure, we think the MPC... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2016) Consumer spending in the emerging world finally looks to have turned a corner, thanks mainly to the bottoming-out of consumer recessions in Russia and Brazil. Spending in Central and Eastern Europe... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Economic giants now contracting Both the Nigerian and South African economies contracted in Q1, and the latest activity figures suggest that things remained very grim going into Q2. In Nigeria, disruptions to oil output in Q2 have... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May) The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that, having spiked at the start of this year, capital outflows from the emerging world have fallen to almost zero over the past couple of months. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Key sectors improve at start of Q2 South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Sharp contraction very worrying sign South Africa’s ailing economy is clearly heading in the wrong direction. Today’s very disappointing Q1 GDP figure will add to pressure on the country’s credit rating. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy The long delay in explaining its new FX policy is another blow to the credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria. In this note, we examine three key questions raised by the current FX policy... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
