Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dips – but no sign of collapse Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth dipped again in November. However, this was driven overwhelmingly by a deepening downturn in Brazil – and more recent survey data have provided some hope that... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergent inflation outlook The divergence in EM inflation looks set to persist throughout 2016. In Emerging Asia, Central Europe and parts of the Middle East, low oil prices will help keep inflation muted. But in some of the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian markets suffer as economy falters The latest drop in oil prices, combined with Abuja’s unorthodox economic policies, sent Nigeria’s financial markets into a tailspin this month. Financial markets elsewhere on the continent also... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Headwinds strengthen in key African economies Recent figures have only strengthened our belief that the challenges facing Africa’s three largest economies are growing. Nigeria’s botched response to low oil prices has caused the currency to plunge... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates hiked as economic outlook deteriorates The South African Reserve Bank has raised its key interest rate from 6.25% to 6.75% as inflation concerns outweighed worries about weak growth. We expect the bank will be forced to hike by another... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele vows “unyielding” defence of naira Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele used the post-MPC meeting press conference to reiterate his commitment to retaining controversial FX restrictions. But with strains in the balance of... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold despite higher inflation While the Central Bank of Kenya held rates on hold today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to tighten policy by around 50bp later this year as inflation remains above target. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of an EM currency war looks overdone A retreat to widespread competitive currency devaluations in emerging markets would certainly be a cause for concern but, despite recent claims to the contrary, there is so far little evidence to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales surprise, but outlook still grim November’s surprisingly buoyant retail sales figures provide a rare piece of good news for South Africa’s struggling economy. But we expect that rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in December OPEC production slipped in December, led by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, but the group’s output is still near record highs. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would a China hard landing mean for EMs? We don’t expect China to suffer a hard landing, but if it were to happen it would result in widespread currency weakness and slower growth in large parts of the emerging world. Emerging Asian... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drop in EM exports still likely to ease this year EM exports continued to perform poorly at the tail-end of last year, but we think that the pace of contraction should at least ease over the course of 2016. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No sign (yet) of an EM credit crunch EM credit growth remains weak by its usual standards but there is no evidence (yet) of a widespread “credit crunch” that could be the precursor to a more serious downturn in economic activity. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
