Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the IMF: five questions (and answers) Egypt’s financial markets have responded extremely positively to the news that the government is close to securing an IMF deal, although at this stage few details about the negotiations are actually... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (July) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped a bit in July, but it still points to manufacturing output growth of about 5.0%. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Central Bank puts its money where its mouth is Nigeria’s self-proclaimed move to a more “flexible” exchange rate last month was initially a disappointment, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reasserting its grip at N282/US$. Over the last week... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates on hold…for now News that Egypt is on the brink of receiving an IMF deal (and the subsequent easing of pressure on the pound) provided the central bank with a window of opportunity to pause its tightening cycle today... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high Inflation in a number of EM commodity producers has remained stubbornly high over the past few months. Accordingly, consensus expectations for monetary policy in these countries have moved towards our... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira finally breaking free The Central Bank of Nigeria has loosened its grip on the naira in recent days, causing us to review our forecast. Elsewhere, South Africa’s equities and currency have outperformed. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN hikes rates despite threat to economic recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest rate hike is a belated attempt to regain control over the country’s weakening currency. We expect that the bank will tighten by at least another 200bps later this... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities lag behind Most stock markets in the Gulf have edged up over the past month, but their performance looks poor compared with the rises seen elsewhere in the emerging world. Meanwhile, expectations of another... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, cuts still in the cards The Central Bank of Kenya decided to hold its key rate at 10.50% today, but we expect that the bank will cut rates later this year as inflation remains within target and Kenya’s external... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: fresh devaluation on the way Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the Egyptian pound could be on the cusp of (another) devaluation. The initial rumours were sparked by the central bank governor, Tarek Amer, who suggested... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely The weakness of South Africa’s economy prompted the MPC to hold off hiking interest rates today, but we still think there is room for additional monetary tightening later in the year. For now, we... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes Nigeria’s new exchange rate policy falls far short of the authorities’ bold promises and we think the currency will have to fall further over the coming 12 months or so. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices hitting home Oil prices have been low for some time now, but the past month has brought further evidence that this new reality is starting to hit home in energy-exporting frontier markets. Recently-released data... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (June) Last month’s rise in South African inflation, to 6.3% y/y, took the headline rate further above the Reserve Bank’s target range, and both we and the Bank expect it to edge higher over the rest of this... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account to remain in deficit, rand under pressure A string of positive trade figures released over the past few months has raised hopes that South Africa’s balance of payments position might finally improve. In this Watch, however, we explain why the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
