Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s November Manufacturing PMI fell to a six year low, and - while there is a possibility that the figure could be revised - we believe that monetary tightening and slow growth have... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update China-Africa: What to expect from this year’s FOCAC This Friday South Africa will host the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), a triannual summit jointly convened by China and the Africa Union. The forum will be Africa’s highest-profile... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian equities slide It’s been a bad month for Nigerian markets as local stocks have declined further, reaching their lowest level since February. The latest leg down appears to have been triggered by the central bank’s... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Brazil a weak link amid EM stabilisation Emerging market (EM) growth appears to have slowed a touch in September on the back of the deepening recession in Brazil. Even so, there are no signs of the collapse in broader EM growth that some... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN slashes rates and its own credibility The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its key policy rate in a surprise move today, the latest signal that Governor Emefiele sees slow growth, rather than the slow-burning balance of payments crisis, as... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q3, but this will provide little comfort for an economy were anaemic growth is becoming entrenched as the new normal. Growth for the year as a... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The Myth of the “African Middle Class” Oft-repeated claims that an African “middle class” will propel economic growth in the region confuse cause and effect. Most estimates of the size of the region’s middle class rely on poorly drawn... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Inflation worries, Fed prompt hikes across Africa Over the past month central banks in South Africa, Ghana, Zambia, and Mozambique have all hiked interest rates. These countries’ domestic situations all vary, but each is facing a combination of high... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slow, painful tightening cycle to continue The SARB’s decision to hike its key interest rate from 6.00% to 6.25% showed that the Bank is alarmed at the prospect of persistently high inflation in the context of disappointing growth. The... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, supporting our belief that recent strong growth in the consumer sector is unsustainable. But today’s figures do at least suggest that the... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South African inflation accelerated to 4.7% y/y in October in what we believe is the beginning of a sharp inflationary spike. While tomorrow’s rate decision will be close, we expect that the SARB will... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM debt problem revisited The past few weeks have seen increased awareness of potential debt problems brewing in the emerging world. In general, debt burdens are lower and more manageable in most EMs than in the past. But... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) GDP figures for Q3 support our long-held view that Nigeria’s 2015 economic performance will be far worse than is commonly expected. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy was just 2.8% in Q3... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: CBK holds rates, hike still likely in Q1 While the Central Bank of Kenya held its key interest rate at 11.50% today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to raise rates by 100bp in early 2016 as inflation picks up and Fed tightening puts... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
