Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue A number of frontier markets have turned to the IMF for financial support over the past few months in order to counter strains in their balance of payments. Angola has formally opened negotiations... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export decline easing off The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed markedly in February. Rising commodity prices and a rebound in China should boost exports later this year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.) South Africa’s PGM production fell sharply in February for the second consecutive month, suggesting that mining firms are finally cutting output in response to lower prices. Looking ahead, wages are... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining figures suggest weak Q1 GDP growth Today’s mining figures are a sobering reminder of the weakness of one of South Africa’s key industries. Our GDP tracker suggests that growth remained positive, albeit very weak, in Q1. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that total capital outflows from EMs eased further in March, reaching a nine-month low of just under $40bn. One reason is that the recent improvement in sentiment towards EMs has... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Buhari’s Beijing deal overblown Media reports have overstated importance of the deals signed this week between Nigeria and China. The announced deals provide little support for Nigeria’s ailing economy. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis Kenya’s banking sector is stronger and more resilient than recent headlines might imply. The failure of a few small banks poses little risk to the sector as a whole. Indeed, as we explain in this... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp acceleration of Nigerian inflation is yet another sign that the country’s controversial currency and price control policies have failed. We expect that inflation will continue rising... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the panic, what next for EMs? The sense of crisis that had been building in emerging markets has started to ease over the past month or so. So what next? In this Update we identify three risks – China, commodities and the threat... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Manufacturing sector springs to life, for now Today’s strong output figure is a rare sign of life from South Africa’s moribund manufacturing sector. Even so, we expect that the sector will struggle to sustain much growth this year. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
