Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jul.) South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in July, dragged down by yet another fall in PGM output. However, the profitability of the PGM industry has continued to improve owing to higher... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3 The first Q3 South African output data support our view that the rapid growth reported in Q2 is unlikely to be sustained. The economy may post positive growth in 2016 as a whole, but only marginally. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further sharp rise in Egyptian inflation, to 15.5% y/y in August, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting later this month. With further subsidy cuts on the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) Strong q/q growth in Q2 mostly reflects a bounce back following the disaster of Q1. We expect that growth will be sluggish in the second half of the year. 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip We think the Egyptian pound could fall by as much as 25% against the US dollar, to 12.0/US$, by end-2017 if the authorities shift to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its prospective IMF deal. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The sharp decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI looks worrying. But we wouldn’t panic; the survey has become a less reliable leading indicator recently. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession The contraction of Nigerian GDP in Q2 was driven by a sharp fall in oil output, but the data shows that other sectors of the economy are also suffering. Economy policy has made a bad situation worse. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies Official data released over the past month mostly suggested that African economies improved a touch, but a series of political shocks has hit investor confidence. The most high-profile of these as... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery resumes Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after a brief pause in May, the recovery in EM growth resumed in June. The latest improvement has been driven by a pick-up in activity in Emerging Asia and Latin... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Political risk spook investors Political risk has roiled the markets in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya over the past month. Tensions within South Africa’s cabinet, which pose a risk to the country’s already fragile economy... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
