Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus African Debt: Troubles contained in a few countries Mozambique’s worsening debt scandal has prompted fears of a string of debt crises across Africa. We believe, however, that the worst debt problems will be centred in Angola. Ghana and Zambia also look... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound since it was floated earlier this month should help to narrow the country’s current account deficit and support a pick-up in private capital inflows. If backed up... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Nigerian inflation accelerated to 18.3% y/y in October, which will put yet more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. We expect that the bank will hike its key policy rate from 14... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political drama will only intensify In this Watch we argue that political tensions surrounding South African President Jacob Zuma will not ease following the embattled president’s victory in yesterday’s vote of no confidence. They will... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Nigeria and Libya push OPEC’s output higher Another rise in OPEC’s oil output in October underlines how difficult it will be for the group to agree on meaningful cuts at the end of the month, especially as US oil production is also rising. In... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Taking stock of the reaction to Trump Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Sep.) South Africa’s total mine production rebounded in September, led by a sharp increase in PGM output on the back of higher prices. With inventories still abundant and the risk of labour disruptions... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data point to (another) sharp slowdown South African manufacturing and mining output figures for September support our view that the strong economic growth recorded in Q2 was not sustained into the third quarter. 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egyptian inflation dipped for a second consecutive month in October. But the 45% fall in the pound against the US dollar over the past week, as well as additional fuel subsidy cuts, means inflation is... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where next for the Egyptian pound? The 45% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar over the past week has probably taken it beyond its “fair value”, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see a small rebound in the coming days and... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Capital inflow figures cause for muted optimism The rise of capital inflows into Nigeria in Q3 suggests that the worst of the problems in the country’s balance of payments are over. But significant strains remain. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What will Egypt’s pound float mean for inflation? The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to float the pound last week, coming alongside a raft of subsidy cuts, means inflation is likely to climb to more than 20% in the coming months. The impact is... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt floats pound, currency falls by 30% against the dollar The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to finally adopt a floating exchange rate regime is a positive step and moves the government closer to securing a US$12bn financing package... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
