Energy Update Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains The return of production from Canada and Nigeria along with a potential increase in output from Libya over the next few months should put some downward pressure on prices. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (May) Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (June) South Africa’s business confidence index remained weak in June, though it rose from the all-time low in May. Other surveys – and timely activity data – suggest that the economy probably avoided a... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Egypt turn to the IMF? Rumours have circulated again that Egypt is seeking a deal with the IMF and, as we argue in this Watch, an agreement is now looking more likely than at any point in the past five years. A financing... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI weakens in June, but some good news The fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in June suggests that growth probably weakened at the end of Q2. But there was some rare positive news from a handful of EM economies that have been... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s surprisingly positive PMI reading provides another sign that South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q2. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Easing cycles have further to run in several frontier markets The past month has brought aggressive monetary easing in a handful of frontier markets, and we think others will follow suit over the rest of this year. Cuts in policy interest rates this month in... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets The key decision affecting African markets this month was Nigeria’s long-awaited currency reforms, which sent the naira tumbling. The effect of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was relatively limited... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Post-Brexit sell-off unlikely to push up inflation in the EM world The sell-off in the majority of EM currencies in the wake of the Brexit vote is unlikely to have a significant impact on inflation in most of the emerging world. That said, it is likely to cause... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Post-Brexit EM market moves likely to be driven by Fed & China EM financial markets are often hit hard during bouts of investor risk aversion, but most have come through the past few days in reasonable shape. Looking ahead, EMs are more likely to face acute sell... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery continues Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up for the third consecutive month in April, helped by an improvement in activity in Latin America and Emerging Europe. 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be The surprisingly bad fall in South African GDP in Q1 has raised fears that the economy could enter recession in Q2. We’ll know more in the next few weeks as May’s activity figures are published, but... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit, EMs and some common questions There are already some signs that following the initial shock of the Brexit vote, financial markets in EMs are starting to stabilise. In this Update, we outline four common questions that we have been... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks continue to build in China A continued build-up of private sector debt in China is increasing financial risks. We don’t expect the sharp rise in credit to cause imminent problems, but we are concerned about sustainability in... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
