Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari The Nigerian senate’s decision to block the president’s borrowing plans may preclude an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan. The bill’s failure highlights the importance of boosting domestic non-oil... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing makes a strong start to Q4 Manufacturing in the emerging world was at its strongest in more than two years in October, according to the latest PMI surveys, with all the major EM economies seeing a substantial pick-up in the... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Saudi devaluation fears fade, African oil currencies struggle Saudi Arabia’s successful international bond sale earlier this month has eased concerns about the sustainability of its currency peg, but exchange rates in other frontier oil exporters remain in the... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth accelerates on back of China pick-up Our GDP Tracker suggests that, having stalled in July, the EM recovery has since resumed. This is due in large part to a pick-up in growth in China. In contrast, the latest data from Brazil have... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt revelations push up bond yields News that Mozambique is seeking to restructure its debts sent its US$ bond yields soaring. South African markets shrugged off another attempt to depose the respected finance minister. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push EM inflation up in coming months EM inflation has been driven largely by moves in commodity prices this year. The decline in food inflation seen in recent months has probably now happened, and rising fuel inflation is set to push EM... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Political risk takes centre stage Political developments across Africa have raised risk perceptions in several key economies. Allies of South Africa’s president made yet another attempt to force the resignation of Pravin Gordhan, the... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Fiscal goals still too ambitious Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s budget plans rely on an economic acceleration that we believe is unlikely to materialise. If growth stays weak, South Africa will over-shoot its deficit and debt... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: What to make of the latest debt revelations It seems likely that Mozambique will eventually reach a debt restructuring deal with its creditors. But the revelation of yet more hidden debt (or another currency fall) could result in a messier... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable? The rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds has continued unabated in recent days, but we think that this year’s strong gains may soon go into reverse. That alone would probably be enough to cause... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail Concerns about the health of Nigerian banks have risen over the past month. Indeed, as we explain in this Watch, it now looks increasingly likely that parts of the financial sector will require... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy falters in Q3 August output data suggests that South Africa’s economy did not sustain the rapid growth posted in Q2 into Q3. We expect that growth will be very weak over the remainder of 2016 and into 2017. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
