Africa Economics Update Africa: Economic shock not over yet GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa slowed to a 16-year low in 2015, but the adjustment to low commodity prices is far from over. We expect even weaker growth in 2016. 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs declined sharply in April to a 10-month low of a little over $10bn. Outflows from China remained relatively low compared to the past year, while... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rising debt adds to economic vulnerabilities Kenya’s high public debt should stabilise as a share of GDP if – as we expect – growth stays strong. But a sharp slowdown or a run on the currency could easily put the debt ratio on an unsustainbale... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy The flow of foreign capital into Nigeria has slowed to a trickle. This will exacerbate the country’s serious balance of payment problems and further depress investment in an economy that is starved of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, financial risks and the Fed With the Fed leaving the door open to another interest rate hike at June’s FOMC meeting, focus is starting to shift once again to financial vulnerabilities in EMs. A handful of countries are likely to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry still in better shape than at start of the year There were sharp drops in the manufacturing PMIs in Brazil and India last month, which pulled down the aggregate EM figure. That said, in both countries this seems to reflect survey data catching up... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya Consumer Prices (Apr.) While inflation is picking up in most of Africa, April’s CPI data showed that price pressures are weakening in Kenya. We expect that this will allow the Central Bank of Kenya to cut rates by 50bp... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies gain, but Mozambique struggles The performance of African markets was mixed this month. Currencies in most major economies strengthened, but Mozambique’s ongoing debt scandal has caused US dollar debt yields there to jump. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt central bank holds rates, but further hikes likely soon The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its overnight deposit rate at 10.75% today as it awaits further evidence of the impact on inflation from last month’s devaluation of the pound. With inflation set... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: IMF takes centre stage Events this month have underlined the continuing importance of the IMF for many economies across Africa. On 6 th April the government of Angola requested an IMF bailout to help stabilise an economy... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has turned a corner, with the BRIC economies leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that the BRICs will continue to drive a recovery in EM growth. We expect... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue A number of frontier markets have turned to the IMF for financial support over the past few months in order to counter strains in their balance of payments. Angola has formally opened negotiations... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
