Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2016 budget falls short of expectations South Africa’s 2016 budget was a damp squib and is likely to dent the government’s recent efforts to regain economic policymaking credibility. While the budget is now based on more realistic growth... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growing divergences among EMs Aggregate EM growth has continued to disappoint in recent months with signs of a renewed (albeit small) deceleration in the latest data. Perhaps more important though is the widening divergence in... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EMs? Over the past week we have published a four-part series analysing the key issues that will shape the outlook for emerging markets. In this Update , we summarise the main messages. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Balance of payments problems escalating The strains in Nigeria's balance of payments are growing, threatening to push Sub-Saharan Africa's largest economy into a full-blown crisis. The Nigerian economy has been battered by the falling price... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira collapses as crisis deepens Strains in Nigeria’s balance of payments sent the country’s currency tumbling this month, at least on the parallel market, and we think the central bank will eventually have to devalue the official... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to rally as industry braces for strikes The platinum price is set to recover in 2016 as production in South Africa contracts, necessitating a draw-down in the abundant above-ground stocks. We believe that there is a renewed risk of strike... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Worst should be over for EM exports The value of EM exports dropped by more than a trillion dollars last year but the pace of contraction eased in Q4. We expect further improvements in 2016 as global demand strengthens. 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EM oil producers on the cusp of a crisis? A wave of debt defaults and financial stress in emerging market oil producers seems unlikely but, with energy prices set to stay low, growth is likely to be much weaker than most anticipate. Among the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy probably avoided drop in GDP in Q4 South African retail sales figures for December, which showed another surprisingly strong year-on-year rise in purchases, suggest that the economy narrowly avoided a fall in GDP at the end of last... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South African inflation accelerated to 6.2% y/y in January in what we believe is the beginning of a food price-driven inflationary spike. Elevated inflation will add to dilemma facing the SARB. 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Aggregate EM capital outflows stood at over $100bn in January and, on a quarterly rolling basis, they increased to a third of a trillion dollars, a record figure by some distance. This continued to be... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Something’s gotta give Nigeria’s currency has come under increasing pressure since the start of the year, and in this Watch we explain why the government’s response is unsustainable and why we think a devaluation of the... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Dec.) The better-than-expected South African manufacturing and mining data for December provided a rare piece of good news for the economy, but even so it looks like GDP growth over Q4 as a whole probably... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political risk adds to economic headwinds A legal case against President Jacob Zuma may further destabilise South Africa’s already febrile political situation. Increased political risk poses a very real threat to the country’s struggling... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
