Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drop in EM exports still likely to ease this year EM exports continued to perform poorly at the tail-end of last year, but we think that the pace of contraction should at least ease over the course of 2016. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No sign (yet) of an EM credit crunch EM credit growth remains weak by its usual standards but there is no evidence (yet) of a widespread “credit crunch” that could be the precursor to a more serious downturn in economic activity. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate hike still likely, despite weak output data South African mining output did not contract as sharply as was predicted in November, but the weakness of the economy will still put pressure on the SARB to slow its hiking cycle. Even so, with the... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that aggregate EM capital outflows rose to a record $270bn in the final quarter of last year, even more than during the depths of the global financial crisis. This was... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation and tourism troubles spell slowdown in 2016 The latest Egyptian economic data, on the face of it, show that the economy held up well in 2015, but the underlying picture is actually pretty weak. With the tourism sector in the midst of a fresh... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African currencies: Key calls for 2016 In this Watch we outline our key views on African currencies in 2016. First, we expect that both the Angolan kwanza and Nigerian naira will be devalued. Second, we expect that the rand will weaken... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected decline of South African manufacturing output in November suggests that GDP growth will disappoint in Q4. Worse, it seems that the hobbled manufacturing sector has not been... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis or recovery: what next for emerging economies? Many parts of the emerging world are facing a tough year in 2016. But the outlook is not as uniformly bleak as many assume and some important emerging economies could spring positive surprises. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking four myths about EMs Not so long ago we were among the most bearish commentators on emerging markets. But even we find some of the more recent gloomy headlines difficult to square with the evidence on the ground. In this... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Devaluation inevitable, delays only lengthen the pain Nigeria’s cumbersome FX restrictions are strangling economic growth in the country, and are unsustainable given growing pressure on the naira. We expect that the authorities will be forced to devalue... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets tumble but PMIs relatively reassuring Equities and currencies have weakened across the emerging world today but the latest economic data, in the form of the manufacturing PMIs, point to a further slight improvement in December. A fall in... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: 2016 budget looks too ambitious Nigeria’s 2016 budget, presented to parliament yesterday, relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions, although at least the focus on raising capital spending marks a welcome change. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa suffers as SSA closes very weak year The South African currency and local equities plunged in December when a botched cabinet reshuffle by President Jacob Zuma caused investors to question the country’s governance. The self-induced... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
